Weak flush draw OOP. Raise flop?

[teampursuit]

Table was pretty loose and not too aggressive. Villain was >60% VPIP.

I felt lost on the flop and river.
-Fold pre-flop?
-Was it a good flop raise?
-Good call on river? Should I have capped or found an xpert fold?

Full Tilt 0.25/0.5 Hold'em (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

<font color="blue"> Picked up a nice combo draw here so I stayed on the gas. </font>

River: (6.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

[JavaNut]

I would probably just call on flop as I would not be able to fold anybody that could beat me if I hit a hand, so I would get more from letting more people in.

On the river I would just call, as UTG+1 must know I am on a flush draw, he is at least not scared that I might raise.

I would not fold on the river.

Preflop is marginal, but if there are very few preflop raises at the table, it is ok.

[fretelöo]

[ QUOTE ]
-Fold pre-flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Almost always, yes. Must be a dream table for me to limp that in early MP with just one guy in the pot.

[ QUOTE ]

-Was it a good flop raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, because you've got nothing than a good draw that strives on implied odds. Call and hope everyone else is calling as well. If more than two beside you call, your making money.

[ QUOTE ]
-Good call on river? Should I have capped or found an xpert fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Call. Fold like never (barring reads). Capping never also. He might have trips, he might have some weird 2pr, but he also might have slowplayed 66 or have a higher flush.

[tyler_cracker]

preflop is fine give your table read.

i would not raise the flop. with stronger overcards, sure. on a more coordinated flop, sure. in a bigger pot, sure. in this hand, i just call and hope to get some overcalls.

(edit: never mind about the "bigger pot" argument.)

as played, you must bet the turn.

river is fine. capping would be a little spewy, but way, way, way better than an "xpert fold". unless you speak a language where "xpert" means "retarded".

[teampursuit]

[ QUOTE ]

river is fine. capping would be a little spewy, but way, way, way better than an "xpert fold". unless you speak a language where "xpert" means "retarded".

[/ QUOTE ]

I lol'ed!

Thanks for the advice; I'm still new to this.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
<font color="blue"> Picked up a nice combo draw here so I stayed on the gas. </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting poker math situation: How often must villain fold on the turn for this bet to be profitable?

[teampursuit]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
<font color="blue"> Picked up a nice combo draw here so I stayed on the gas. </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting poker math situation: How often must villain fold on the turn for this bet to be profitable?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's assume I have 15 outs (9 for flush, 6 more for str8, 0 for spiking pair; that probably discounts things somewhat properly). That means I win ~1/3 of the time. I guess that means if he folds 1/6 of the time I break even. This ignores the river action when I'm ahead.

Problem is, if I put him on a (superior) flush draw, then I have only 6 outs. In that case he probably never folds, so the question becomes somewhat moot.

So the trick becomes to properly discount the flush outs by taking into account the probability that he has a superior flush draw.

[JavaNut]

As you have been pretty aggresive so far he could be c/r on the turn with a FH, taking 2 BB on the turn and 2 BB more on the river if you hit a flush or straight.

You should never fold this but you could still be drawing dead right now. No need for him to press on when you are doing it for him.

[tyler_cracker]

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting poker math situation: How often must villain fold on the turn for this bet to be profitable?

[/ QUOTE ]

if this were a pure bluff, we risk 1 to win 4.5, so we would need to win 1/5.5 times or 18.1% of the time.

since this is a sem-bluff, we have outs to improve. let's assume all 9 flush outs and 6 non-[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] straight outs are good and that nothing else gives us a winning hand for a total of 15 outs. there are 46 unseen cards, so we improve 15/46 times, or 32.6% of the time. (32.6% is also our pot equity).

one way to look at it is that our 1 BB bet really only costs us 100%-32.6% or 67.4% of a bet, or .674 BB. thus, we are risking .674 BB to win 5.5 BB, and our semi-bluff must work only .674/5.5 times, or 12.2% of the time.

this ignores the fact that if Villain calls the turn, he will usually call the river when we improve, so we win another bet 32.6% of the time, which drives the breakeven point even lower. i'll have to think some more about how to do the math on this parlay.

someone please let me know if i "[censored] the dog", to quote the eminently-quotable Dr. Coxlax.

[teampursuit]

Ah yes, I was not considering pot odds, but, rather, the immediate bet odds. So yes, given that we agree on the number of outs, I think you're right that villain need only fold well less than 1/6 of the time to show a profit on this (semi-) bluff.