16T: folding KK pre on bubble

[jack_of_hearts]

I think OP changed the short stack to value that would compute.

[Heavens_Myst]

i had a similar situation yesterday, i was big stack in the 16t, actually with around 8000, folded to me on SB with UTG having like 200, so i pushed A rag into the BB who had around 2000, and he folded QQ, i personally make the call with a hand like that to go for the win... blinds were either 200/400 or 300/600... sure short stack will be all in next hand, but what is to say that he will be knocked out, if he doubles up+antes hes able to fold the SB and go another 2 hands out of the blinds, so your forced to fold to smart big stack, and blind yourself down.

[luthar]

Honestly, I call this all day long EXCEPT and ONLY EXCEPT if i'm playing a 5400fpp SnG and on bubble where we all win equal prizes....

You aren't going to loose that often, and if you win, you are in really healty shape.

But if you like to be ITM and 3rd, fold.

[EscapePlan9]

KK, bubble, all-in. ICM says it's a MAJORLY +EV call to make and you're still trying to argue against it? This isn't like +0.2 EV, it's like +2.0 or more EV. BIGGGG difference

[david050173]

[ QUOTE ]
KK, bubble, all-in. ICM says it's a MAJORLY +EV call to make and you're still trying to argue against it? This isn't like +0.2 EV, it's like +2.0 or more EV. BIGGGG difference

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you show the math where this works out to be majorly ev? I am wondering how you are accounting for the short stack. If you assume, it will always blind out on the next hand, you need to be a 80% favorite so if he has an ace you have to fold. If he has a suited connector or underpair is is pretty much a toss up.

As a practical matter, I don't think I have every folded KK to a single bet in a SNG.

[Kevin8423]

Yeah I take it back, I still fold QQ here but I'm def calling KK. I find plenty of other spots to reload if I get a badbeat, the chips you gain here a good percent of the time will lead to a much easier time ITM and possibly even bullying the other shorter stack before ITM.

I'm not really sure what the last post is saying, but he WON'T always have an A and suited connectors and underpairs are hardly a toss up with KK. He's likely on a wide range here, make the call.

[david050173]

Suited connectors and underpairs will win ~20% of the time. You need to win 80% of the time to make the call so if he has those it is about an ev neutral play calling. If he has one over card, he wins >20% of the time so your making a bad call.