a concept borrowed from NL

[Guruman]

other factors to consider:

If the player has a weak but showdown worthy hand he's more likely to just check the river again to induce the bluff or take the showdown. This is the majority of the range that you're hoping to fold out. When he bets the river, the soft middle part of his range should be discounted in favor of the made hands and pure bluffs. This means that when you consider the river action your best options are still probably call or fold.

It would probably be a better line to bluffraise with a worse hand (like a low busted draw) since there's a wider range of bluff/fold hands he can have in that spot that would win accidentally.

[sternroolz]

[ QUOTE ]
You are getting negative response because everyone here wants to base their strategy upon the three worst players at the table rather than against each other.

The modern mid stakes live limit games seem to be a strange mix of almost half pro and semi-pro and half weakies, without lots inbetween. I think your suggestion would be profitable against as many as half the players you see at typical live mid-stakes games.

[/ QUOTE ]

See Commerce Casino 20-40 LHE.

[Entity]

BTW I didn't think Josh's post was bad, quite the opposite actually. I just disagreed with some of the conclusions as while they were theoretically correct I don't see many players bet the river with the intention of folding very often anymore, from what I can tell, unless it's a bluff. I'm basing this moreso on what they pay my river raises off with than by the fact that they sometimes bet-fold, though, so this obviously could be a flawed methodology for examining my beliefs here.

Rob

[Bad Lobster]

Excellent post - this is turning into a very informative discussion.

The long-shot bluff is almost a parallel with the long-shot crying call that only has to win once in a while to show a profit, with one difference:

Making crying calls doesn't change your overall strategy, but bluffing does. With calls, you can do it over and over as long as necessary. You can call 8 times and lose, then win one at 10-1 and make a profit. With bluffs, you have to give up after getting caught once or twice, because being known as a bluffer reduces the chances that your next bluff will succeed. Then you go over to betting for value until people start folding against you again.

[The DaveR]

Isn't this a really sophisticated elaboration of Clark's old post about wishing he had raised every time he called with K high?

Also, I think this just about never works live where the standard reaction is <sigh> <call> without a moment's hesitation.

[SA125]

I think this is a solid play against the right opponents, but not only for the reasons given by OP. The ch on the flop by the hero sets it up.

You raise pf in a blind/steal spot and ch behind the flop rather than auto betting. Villain is a good agro player. He correctly figures the pot is up for grabs and the first one willing to act like they have something and put BB chips in the pot wins.

So he takes the initiative when empty, bets the turn and you call. He figures you either have a weak hand you might toss, or you're just making sure he's not bs'ing and will fold if he bets again.

The villain has the stones to fire another barrel on the river, still empty, you know this and raise. You'll win the pot if this is the case. Against good agro players, that could be fairly often in spots like this.

[cgrohman]

An opponent that would bet/fold to a raise on this river is very rare. If you can find such an opponent, then this play will work, but I don't think you can all that often. If you want to make a play at this pot against an average opponent, the time to do it is on the turn.

[danzasmack]

the problem I have is a lot of times when I'm calling the river I usually put villain on a monster or total air

So if I'm at the river with Khi on a JJ7AK I've got him on like 89 or J7 or something. That's not that good of an example but I think you see what I mean.

Against people that value bet thin then yeah I like this to a degree. But online I find myself getting "wtf?" called a lot, esp when I take a line like the one you mentioned in OP.

[benwood]

Death Donkey,if you're really interested in working on your no limit game,take a look at Dan Harrington's books.They're great.

[emerson]

[ QUOTE ]
Death Donkey,if you're really interested in working on your no limit game,take a look at Dan Harrington's books.They're great.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are they great for cash games?