a concept borrowed from NL

[Josh.]

in NL, when faced with a bet on the river and you can't decide whether to fold or call, you're often better off throwing in a raise vs an opponent capable of making thin value bets. a big reason why it works is because by the time you've gotten to the river, your opponent figures you to have some sort of made hand, and is only able to beat a made hand-turned-bluff. many unsophisticated players are unaware of this play and as a result quickly fold since the opponent just "can't" be bluffing.

quick nl example: opponent raises on the button and you call with 88. the flop comes 974r and you c/c. the turn is a J and you both check. the river is a 3. you check and he bets. imo, this is a good time to raise because (1) there are many big hands (straights, sets, 2 pairs) that you'd play this exact way and very few hopeless ones, (2) your opponent most likely has at best 1 pair, and (3) he can easily be bluffing so you think it's close between calling and folding. by raising you expect to blow him off the majority of his hands. you COULD call, but by raising you not only still beat his worse hands, but you beat some of his thinner value bets as well by making them fold. i believe this idea can be adapted for use in limit games as well.

in limit obviously it's harder to pull this off because most people can't fold an ace getting 8-1, but there are occasions where a good hand reading opponent can't put you on a bluff and will be able to lay down the bottom portion of his range. this can be a huge coup in a limit game, where a 1 BB bluff can yield you many times that amount, and needn't work all the often. so while it may be harder to pull off, if used correctly this can be a hugely profitable play.

i was screwing around at limit on stars today and the following hand came up:

i raise the button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and a good, aggressive player who checkraises a lot calls in the BB.

flop (headsup for 2.25 bb) is J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. he checks and i check. i'm pretty sure he's seen me not c-bet a few times and probably puts me on something like an underpair, A high, or something hopeless that i decided to just give up with.

turn (headsup for 2.25 bb) is Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. he bets and i call because his preflop range is very wide, and his turn betting range is probably near 100%. i have a gutter, a bad over, probable 3-4 outs to a chop, and a good % of the time i the best hand. i ran a quick sim and i'm 30% vs { 77-22, A8s-A2s, K9s-K2s, QTs-Q2s, J2s+, T7s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A9o-A2o, K9o-K5o, QTo-Q5o, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o } so i think it's justified getting over 3-1 with position even if he's not betting any 2

river (headsup for 4.25 bb)is [J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

he bets. when i call the turn, i think he can put me on a range of something like underpair, stubborn ace, Q7o-Q5o, Q7s-Q2s (i've been stealing at a very high rate). so as a result, given the river pairing the Q i might've hit, he can expect any pair to be safely ahead of my calling range for the river, and make some thin value bets (that he value bets thin is key, because those are the hands i'm trying to push him off). i think he can also be bluffing some % of the time because i look weak.

so when he bets it's very tempting to pay him off. but if i throw in a raise i think i can get him off most of his weaker hands. he's a good enough player to know that i'm definitely raising with any Q on the river, and it's hard to imagine me raising with a hand that has showdown value like Ax or an underpair.

i'm pretty rusty and my assumptions may be wrong. am i wrong to think that he could occasionally throw away 77, A8, 97. etc getting 7.25-1, assuming my image isn't too crazy and spewy?

[Josh.]

a little math:

i figure a breakeven point for always calling the raise is J7. the board is QQJ98, so i figure KJ calls just about always, but J7 might release.

Board: Qh Qc Js 8c 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.926% 44.44% 06.48% 864 126.00 { J7o }
Hand 1: 49.074% 42.59% 06.48% 828 126.00 { 77-55, A8s, K9s-K8s, QTs-Q2s, J2s+, T7s+, 96s+, 85s+, A9o-A8o, K9o-K8o, QTo-Q5o, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o }


so about 50% of hands that he's value betting, he's going to call/3-bet me, and on 50% he MIGHT fold.

for the sake of argument, we'll say that he's bluffing 19% of the time, which makes folding and calling roughly the same EV. so 19% of the time when i raise, i win 5.25 BB. of the remaining 81%, half, 40.5% of the time, he will call or 3-bet me always and i lose 2 BB. the last 40.5% of the time he will fold x% of the time to my raise and i win 5.25 BB x%, and lose 2 BB (1-x)% of that 40.5%.

so EV = .19*5.25 + .405*(-2) + .405*[x*5.25 + (1-x)*(-2)], and x=21% for EV=0

for the EV to be the same as calling or folding (0), he needs to fold the hands he's value betting that can't beat J7o 21% of the time

[DeathDonkey]

Teach me NL and I'll teach you to not bluff fish in limit. That said good posts and its not that bad. Mostly I just wanted to beg you to teach me NL.

-DeathDonkey

[Entity]

Josh,

Two things.

1) I don't see the gutter with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the QJ98 board.

2) I don't often see people fold J7 on the board below. Not anymore, at least.

Rob

[Josh.]

[ QUOTE ]
Josh,

Two things.

1) I don't see the gutter with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the QJ98 board.

2) I don't often see people fold J7 on the board below. Not anymore, at least.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]


oh this hand didn't actually happen as described and i tweaked it a bunch of times between QJT8 (where i realized he could put me on Kx) and QJ98, and i didn't notice that changed. but the equity is still correct. good catch

what's a hand that he could fold some % of the time? A9?

[private joker]

One of the most unrealistic scenes in "Lucky You" takes place at the Bellagio 8/16 game where a donk bets the river and the Hero talks a lot, going over the hand like it's the WSOP final table, then raises with nothing and the donk folds. Limit holdem is about value betting because idiots pay you off.

I think the move Josh is talking about works against tight, thinking, even pretty good players -- especially at full ring games online 30/60 and up (short-handed players know to call down with A-high, etc.). But in the majority of medium stakes games, especially live, this play costs 2BBs and may not pay off often enough to justify that expense.

[Victor]

" But in the majority of medium stakes games, especially live, this play costs 2BBs "

3bbs imo.

[The Funky Llama]

josh i think a couple of your assumptions might be off a bit...

1) I think his turn bet is a lot more likely to be a strong hand or bluff than it is to be a marginal one like 77. I think a lot of people (most maybe) check 77 and the like on that turn.

2) If he did bet the turn with 77, I think he is fairly likely to check the river instead of betting it for value. So I think his river bet contains fewer marginal hands than you think it does. One of the reasons why this is so is because I dont think he expects you to call the turn with ace high.

[emerson]

You are getting negative response because everyone here wants to base their strategy upon the three worst players at the table rather than against each other.

The modern mid stakes live limit games seem to be a strange mix of almost half pro and semi-pro and half weakies, without lots inbetween. I think your suggestion would be profitable against as many as half the players you see at typical live mid-stakes games.

[ssmallz]

If I've got a weak hand, I think I check call this river. That being said, if I had a weak hand and decided to bet, I'm def folding to your raise. I like the thinking and I think it works against the type of player you describe. You don't get looked up by A high too often on this boar and you def don't get looked up by an underpair.