Fold to Early? or 20/20 Hindsite?

[BigAlChicago]

[ QUOTE ]

Help a noob out, I'm confused by your statement saying that we don't have anywhere near the odds due to us also needing to put in a bet on the turn if we hit a K, Q or 9 [ETA: or 7]. Don't we only factor in the bet we have to put in on the flop cuz we can dump this on the turn if we don't hit any of those cards?

[ETA: I just saw your earlier post where you also factored in the 7 (which I forgot) and calculated some even better odds for us to continue.]

GmathishardG

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You are going to need to draw two cards to make your hand, so you need to calculate not only the odds for the current round, but what it is going to cost you to see the river against the likely pot at the river.

We know it will cost us one SB to see the turn card (assuming no raise behind us). We have to make an estimate as to what it will cost us to see the river. The OP assumed that it would be 2 BBs to see the river. I am not sure if this based on results, or a reasonable estimate of the turn.

If we hit our straight draw, we can assume on the turn we have the odds to call the river, but in calling the flop, we need to factor in the cost of seeing two cards to make our hand. Remember, the object of the exercise is to make the straight; the straight draw is not a "made hand."

So, the "cost" of calling is the SB on the flop, plus the cost of seeing the river the approximately 1/3 of the time we pick up the OESD or the gutshot.

We know we are getting at least 22:1 in calling the flop, and assuming a call behind us, 23:1. But, if it is going to cost us 2 BB on the turn, we can expect the cost to be approximately 1.2 BB. That is, 0.5 BB on the flop and 1/3 times 2 BB on the turn. Do we have sufficient implied odds to draw to our backdoor straight if it is going to cost an average of 2 BB to see the river?

The pot has 11.5 BB on the flop (excluding our call). I calculated that our odds to make the straight was about 21.5:1. Thus, if it costs 1.2 BB to get the straight, the anticipated pot needs to be 25.5 BB (excluding our bets). That's a lot of bets to be counting on for the turn and river.

If it will only be 1 BB on the turn, the "cost" would be 0.85 BB so the pot needs to contain slightly more than 18 BBs.

It is not clear that you have the implied odds to call the flop bet. If you do pick up your draw, then you would almost certainly have the odds to call through to the river.

[NormandySD]

Well the pot ended up being well over 25.5 BB so I guess that means the call on the flop was the correct play. The final pot was about 200 - 240

[BigBadBabar]

you're not gonna know the eventual potsize when you make your pf or flop decisions. just go on the info you have then.

[James.]

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I have no idea what you are doing in this hand preflop.

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i thought the same thing.

[thesecondnuts]

Can I get in on this game?