Fold to Early? or 20/20 Hindsite?

[NormandySD]

Fun and Good 3/6 local game with a high rake (4) so multiway is the favorite, wide mix of players. Hero in BB with 10 J (no suit) capped PF 6 players to the flop (ugh).
Not usually heavy action on flop.

Flop: A 8 2 r

Checks... 1 Bet from MP, 3 calls and Hero Folds, and more calls. Very unlikely a check raise on flop.

Should I have stayed? This pot is already 100 bucks and I folded for 3. It is Obvious what I really want on the turn. 9 or Q for a straight draw. Fold anything else.

As it turns out I would have picked up the straight draw and then have to come in for 2 bets to go to the river (predictable at that table AQ and A9 very real possibilites). (easy fold if I pair instead of straight draw). And of course HEROs nut straight would have hit river but instead 2 pair takes a massive 200ish pot.

So my real question is. Do I call on the flop with the way the hand went down being fairly predictable. I was aware of the Q or the 9 for open straight possiblities at turn but layed down for $3 at flop.

Very familiar with 2+2 strat. and tactics. Huge fan.

[thesecondnuts]

lol...where to even begin...

pf I wouldn't be even calling, especially capped. You have to be up against at least one overpair, making you at least a 4-1 underdog. Even if you do flop broadway, you might be still drawing against one or two full house draws, and maybe even a flush draw.

Secondly, as much as the odds say that you should call that flop, I still do not recommend calling here. If you miss your turn, the hand is over, and you have already committed 3-3 1/2 BB already. Playing backdoor draws are not what I consider a winning proposition. This is kind of 50-50 for me. But in the long run, I would just fold.

[NormandySD]

Thx for the post.

I was actually dragged in slowly to the flop by a button raise and MP 3 betting. So it was BB, then 1 more bet. Then the 2 more bets. Nobody had overpair I was VERY confident and even so I am not playing for 1 pair against 6 players, willing to fold TP. I would definately play PF the same way again I stand by that. Had I known it was gonna cap I would have dodged but I got drawn in. Table gives lots of action and players very easily have any Ace and low gap connectors 57.

My real question is on the flop. Just that 3 bucks to pick up the straight draw. Even if I have to cold call2 on the turn to see the river... I will be getting good odds for the straight and be happy to call (pot estimated 240 if I hit + CR).

I mean I folded as you recommended but 3 bucks on the 100.. jeez.

[Niediam]

I have no idea what you are doing in this hand preflop.

If it looks like that you will able to see the turn for one bet and the players play fairly passive in general (you dont really want to be stuck chasing a gutshot on the turn for multiple bets) then calling here is probably ok.

[thesecondnuts]

Yes, your implied odds were off the chart here. If you did get there, you were gonna get a hell of a lot of money off everyone. No one would put you on backdoor straight draw. Sometimes its just a feel. If you could anticipate all 6 calling here, it might not be a bad call, but like I said earlier, you have to get a perfect catch on the turn to even consider putting in anymore into this pot.

So let's say you do call and it gives you an up and down draw on the turn, are you ready to invest 3 or 4 bets just to see a river that in all actuality, will only hit 1-9?

[NormandySD]

yeah the 6 calling on the flop is predictable. 2 bets on the turn predictable. 8 / 46 cards more like 4to1 or 5to1. so 12 bucks to 240 is 20to1 money. easy call. Even a capped turn will be a profitable draw OE. I think. Im noob. If your math is fuzzy then your take on it may be too.

Again... I folded too.. it seems the obvious move on flop.

And I couldnt go wrong on the turn once i pick up straight draw. Im 5to1 on that straight and am getting about 5to1 money on that betting round alone (even leaving the money in the pot out).

Somone plz help with the accurate math otherwise Im gonna lose a lot of money soon!

[gobbledygeek]

This is an easy flop peel, isn't it? You're getting 27:1 and almost closing the action (is there only one more to act?). I'm not exactly sure how to count the outs here, but the two gapper to the A is about what, 0.5 outs, and the one gapper to the 8 is about what, 1.0 outs, plus maybe throw in 0.5 outs for a J or T and the fact that a Q or 9 will give you a double gutshot / OESD. I think this is 2 outs so 27:1 easily covers it. No?

Gwhy,yes,thatismyass,thankyouforhandingittomeG

[NormandySD]

Looking back I think so. Fold anything but the open straight draw on the turn.

Since it would be expected that so many players would play to the river on that pot, and I would be drawing for complete nuts (even at flop). The gamble on the turn itself even without any pot or implied odds would have in itself been even money / close to favorable cap or no cap with that many callers.

I mean even if i pick up OE draw Q or 9. I wish I was back in the hand no matter what happens. Even if the river bricks I am still wishing I had been in at the turn (mathwize) even to a cap.

Thats why im still so hung up. Im not a typical MAN I SHOULD HAVE STAYED WITH THAT NOTHING DRAW I WOULD HAVE RUNNER RUNNERed trips.

Im talking about a night changing pot that i really folded for 3 dollar.

[Chino987]

fold PF, fold flop.

you have 0.5 outs. you need 200:1 to call. factor in implied odds, maybe 50:1. you arent getting 50:1 on the flop.

[L_Killkenny]

First, I would of folded preflop after the C/R and the cap by the original raiser. I'm not gonna stick 2 more SB's preflop. Fold, then get pissed because you folded what ended up being the winner, then move on.

Second, I'll never call a flop bet with a runner, runner draw. A gutshot yes, but never a runner runner.

Let's face it, I've folded 7/2off preflop and seen the flop come down 772. Does this mean I should of played the 7/2 off?

LK