Have I got a bet? How about my PFR?

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
You need at least 6 callers to make this a "winning" play and it's such a tiny edge, blah. I like raising here at 10-20 or something but at the FW $2 game you're basically just gambling.

[/ QUOTE ]Absolutely incorrect about the 2/4 games. Your edge is very big with a hand like this. First, you need only a couple of callers in the $2/$4 came because they are going to pay you off handsomely when you hit your set.

Of course, this plays 100% differently in a bigger limit game or even in the lower limit online games. First, you arent going to get the callers and they arent nearly as likely to pay you off. In a tough game, I will often fold or raise this preflop to either steal or to show that I dont raise with just premium hands early. Also, in the bigger games, you can steal a lot more flops with 1-2 callers if you have raised early because good players are more likely to lay down on certain flops if they didnt hit.

btw - I am going down to Canterbury in an hour for the first time in years. The guy who works for me and who I taught to play has never been to a live card room and he is dying to go. So, since I live only 5 minutes away (we work out of my house) we are going to play for a few hours. If anyone is there stop by and say hi. I am a big tall guy with a shaved head and I will be wearing a gray pokerstars sweatshirt.

[Man of Means]

Is this full 10-handed? I will assume it is.

Preflop raise. This can go either way. For value and/or narrowing the field, this hand has an obvious advantage. But you sorta lose the postflop play of checking and calling or raising. You're basically set up to bet most flops and lose the information associated with response to your postflop actions.

Flop and turn bets are fairly standard

The river bet: all non-ace high draws fold, the ace-high draws *usually* fold (some players hand around with Ax to the river), 6x/Jx/Kx/77+ will probably just call (fearing AA), 5x may call or raise, and 44-22 may call.

So we only have the risk of being raised by a 5, and as they say "if you're going to call a bet, might as well bet it yourself". Plus if they fold they don't get to see your hand.

[Befolder]

Grunch.

Don't open UTG w/ this hand in THIS game. Don't bet the turn. Anybody still in the hand plays paint and there are now two on board.

The river is certainly not a bet.

[shuinthehouse]

Doc - I played about 700 hands this w/e if you did not see my TR check it out for some funny quotes. I don't like the PFR here, but I don't hate it. Flop bet is OK, these guys call with any pair, any 3 str8, any 3 flush. But I rarely saw a call on the turn with air, so I don't like the turn bet. Likely both villains have a piece, either a K, J, 6, or 5. On the river you only beat someone with a 5 or a smaller PP, one of the 2 villains has a K,J, or 5 and he is not folding.

[Man of Means]

[ QUOTE ]
But I rarely saw a call on the turn with air, so I don't like the turn bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

But we don't know they're going to call if he bets...and we'd rather not give a freebie to the A9 type of air. Also 87, QT, AQ, AT and other legit hands will (and should if they saw Dr. M's hand) call.

However, your observation may show why a river bet does not make sense if you think the players would not call a turn bet with a worse pair (6, 77, 44-22), especially since "they always put you on AK"

[DrModern]

[ QUOTE ]
But I rarely saw a call on the turn with air, so I don't like the turn bet. Likely both villains have a piece, either a K, J, 6, or 5.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I bet the turn, BB has checked to me twice, so I have no reason to think he has a K, and it isn't super likely he has a J.

The other player has called once. You know from playing the Foxwoods $2/$4 game that people peel the flop with basically anything, so I haven't got a reason to believe he has me beat. I certainly don't yet have any reason to believe the K has helped anyone.

You're leaving out straight draws, A-high, and lots of worse hands. But the more important point is that you can't use their turn calls to justify not betting the turn.

IMO, with the information I have to that point, the turn is a value bet.

At any rate, I read your TR. It was pretty LOL. Well done, sir.

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
What's your default play here with 99? What about TT? Why are they different?

[/ QUOTE ]

TT is my cutoff for raising. The reason is that while there is a tradeoff between preflop equity and postflop considerations, TT is where the balance shifts in the other direction in my mind.

To me raising this type of hand just adds a tiny amount of EV and a large amount of variance preflop in a game that's already high EV, high variance, and then has the side effect of making postflop harder, increasing the number of postflop mistakes you make, and making it harder to protect your hand should you hit the type of flop that UI eight's want to continue on.

[James.]

these types of games require a different sort of play. it is actually sometimes necessary to deviate from what is "optimal" to capitalize on the mistakes of these players later in the hand. that is how we make the most money in these super loose games. you profit off of their mistakes. your preflop raise in effect levels the playing field for the bad players and induces them to play correctly, whether they realize it or not. i'm not saying i wouldn't raise under some specific circumstances in such a game, but it's not an autoraise.

given that your raised pf, i play the flop and turn the same but likely c/f the river in most circumstances.