Fold to Early? or 20/20 Hindsite?

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold anything but the open straight draw on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

This can't be right. On the turn, hero will likely be getting better than 15:1 to call. He should call with any improvement, ie, any K / Q / J / T / 9.

good luck.
Eric

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
fold PF, fold flop.

you have 0.5 outs. you need 200:1 to call. factor in implied odds, maybe 50:1. you arent getting 50:1 on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]That is incorrect. You are roughly 20 to 1 and you are getting way better odds than that.

12 cards give you a gutshot on the river = 12/47*4/46
4 cards give you a straight draw = 4/47*8/46
6 cards give you a trip draw or 2 pair draw on the river = 6/47*5/46

This gives you 20 to 1. The pot is already offering 28-1 and it is likely to go higher. Now, you are likely going to have to pay more on the turn and even if you hit you might lose. But, this is also compensated by the fact that lots more money is likely going into the pot.

Clearly, 50-1 is not correct. I think you easily take the 28-1 odds and see the turn.

[NormandySD]

So fold the double bet in the BB on a massive pot to see the flop. 2 more to see 24 bets? I think Ill keep calling in that position at this table. I mean come on 10J in BB when i already have a solid 12 in there (BB and the 1 call). Im not talking about K9 or A7. At this table people are playing any Ace. I still have to standby my PF play.

Maybe I could have folded to the 2 bets but thats a big dang pot at that point and nothing is anything at that table until the flop. AA and KK are not good hands in this game so 10J looking sharp.

LK... how much money was in the pot when you had 72 and how much more was it to call? lol.

if there are 8 players each in for 2 bets and you have your BB committed... I would probably call for 1 more bet with the 72 just in case of that flop.

I was dragged into the flop and yes all... I folded. but i gotta reitterate... once open ended on the turn i had posative expectations despite anything that went down. So how can I not check for 3 bucks to see if Im gonna find myself in such a weighty situation.

I mean im not talking about going to the river on a gutshot.

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
So fold the double bet in the BB on a massive pot to see the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]I have no idea what the math is on this situation but I would fold J,10o 100% of the time when facing 2 bets.

[L_Killkenny]

Lets put it this way, when starting with 2 unsuited connected cards you are roughly 8 to 1 to flop an open ended draw, 2 pair, trips, straight, etc. Thats the minimum you would need to be able to call flop bets and see the turn. Even with floping one of those options none except the straight are very powerfull because of kicker problems and all the other people holding cards. Heck even if you flop trips, there is a 70% chance of someone else holding a jack at a full table they may boat up or have you out kicked.

As for the 7/2, It doesn't matter the number of people or the amount of $$. I'm not callin any amount of money on a 30 to 1. None.

Most players play to many hands that are all but impossible to play correctly unless they flop a made hand. You play what you want.

BTW, you didn't have a solid 12 in the pot, you had 6. I could even argue that you only had 3 in the pot since your blind is forced action. Remember, once the chips go in the pot, they are no longer yours. At that point they are just part of the pot. Poker skills like math and the ability to read players takes over.

LK

[L_Killkenny]

Also btw, Normandy, in that pot, if you had gotten lucky and flopped a gutshot it would of been a 100% correct play to call it to the river. The odds of hitting a gutshot are way (way, way, way) better than hitting a runner, runner straight.

LK

[BigAlChicago]

I will try to run the numbers on this. I would appreciate comments and/or confirmation of the accuracy of these calculations.

Let’s look at the chances to make your straight. For the purpose of this exercise, I will assume we will not be chasing trips or two pair if we hit a pair on the turn. I am also excluding the possibility that if we make our straight, someone will make their flush due to the rainbow flop (or that you will be chopping with another J10). Thus, if you make your straight, you will have the nuts. Also, if you pick up your straight draw, you will have the odds to call down to river to hit your straight, even if it is gutshot.

You have 8 chances to hit a Q or a 9 to give you an OESD. On the river, you will then have 8 outs to hit your nut straight. Probability =(8*8)/(47*46)=2.96%.

You have 8 chances to hit a K or a 7 to give you a gutshot. On the river, you will then have 4 outs to hit your nut straight. Probability =(8*4)/(47*46)=1.48%.

In other words, you will hit your straight on the river 4.44% of the time. This translates into odds of about 21.5 to 1.

What will it cost you to draw to the straight?

Assuming you are right about the flop not being raised behind you, it will cost 0.5 BB to see the turn. Approximately one third of the time (16/47), you will be paying another 2 BB on the turn when you hit your draw. This will cost you on average another 0.68 or at total of 1.18.

Based on the odds, you need to expect to win more than 25.4 BB (21.5 * 1.18) to make this a good call on the flop. When you are calling on the flop, assuming all of the pre-flop callers will call, there are 14.5 BB in the pot – 24 SBs from preflop and 5 more on the flop. The issue, as I see it, is whether you can anticipate getting in another 11 BB’s in on the turn and river to make this call worthwhile. How many of your opponents will pay 2 BB on the turn to see the river in this large pot? How many will call a bet (or more) on the river when your backdoor straight hits? I think this is marginal and highly dependent on how many will pay 2 BB on the turn to see the river. If only 3 of your 6 opponents call the turn bet and raise, you need to be sure that all three are willing to pay 2 BB to see the showdown!

While it is close, this is probably a fold.

[StrictlyStrategy]

I fold this flop.

J high isn't a good hand.

[shane88888]

Preflop: Hero is BB with JTo.
3 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Button raises, SB calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP2 3-bets, CO calls, Button caps, SB calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (24 SB) A, 8, 2r (6 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (14.5 BB) ??? (5 players)

River: (??? BB) ??? (??? players)

No rake taken

Normandy, this is a hand history. It really helps. Try and edit and fill in the blanks. Or else you get a thread full of irrelevant advice and then some horrible advice, both of which are flawlessly illustrated above.

I'm sure I'm not the only person who doesn't want to comment on a hand that they can't make heads or tails of.

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
I will try to run the numbers on this. I would appreciate comments and/or confirmation of the accuracy of these calculations.

Let’s look at the chances to make your straight. For the purpose of this exercise, I will assume we will not be chasing trips or two pair if we hit a pair on the turn. I am also excluding the possibility that if we make our straight, someone will make their flush due to the rainbow flop (or that you will be chopping with another J10). Thus, if you make your straight, you will have the nuts. Also, if you pick up your straight draw, you will have the odds to call down to river to hit your straight, even if it is gutshot.

You have 8 chances to hit a Q or a 9 to give you an OESD. On the river, you will then have 8 outs to hit your nut straight. Probability =(8*8)/(47*46)=2.96%.

You have 8 chances to hit a K or a 7 to give you a gutshot. On the river, you will then have 4 outs to hit your nut straight. Probability =(8*4)/(47*46)=1.48%.

In other words, you will hit your straight on the river 4.44% of the time. This translates into odds of about 21.5 to 1.

What will it cost you to draw to the straight?

Assuming you are right about the flop not being raised behind you, it will cost 0.5 BB to see the turn. Approximately one third of the time (16/47), you will be paying another 2 BB on the turn when you hit your draw. This will cost you on average another 0.68 or at total of 1.18.

Based on the odds, you need to expect to win more than 25.4 BB (21.5 * 1.18) to make this a good call on the flop. When you are calling on the flop, assuming all of the pre-flop callers will call, there are 14.5 BB in the pot – 24 SBs from preflop and 5 more on the flop. The issue, as I see it, is whether you can anticipate getting in another 11 BB’s in on the turn and river to make this call worthwhile. How many of your opponents will pay 2 BB on the turn to see the river in this large pot? How many will call a bet (or more) on the river when your backdoor straight hits? I think this is marginal and highly dependent on how many will pay 2 BB on the turn to see the river. If only 3 of your 6 opponents call the turn bet and raise, you need to be sure that all three are willing to pay 2 BB to see the showdown!

While it is close, this is probably a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]You are not accounting for runner runner trips or runner runner 2 pair. While thin, this adds value.

Also, why are you assuming a bet and a raise on the turn, especially since the flop wasnt raised and the cards that give us the draws arent cards likely to induce a lot of action.