Thoughts on a Downswing

[diebitter]

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Not many people are immune to downswings, I just got distracted from reading after where the 2nd paragraph would normally start. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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IMO, FR NLHE is probably the poker game that is least immune to variance (though I think SNG's are pretty robust to them too) if you play okay. That's true of both multitabling TAG play and single-tabling thinking play. Try to think of playing each and every decision you have to make as one that is about making the most +EV in a session (if you're a tag, it's actually the most +EV/least -EV at every given decision, not the overall session - Lags deliberately go a little -EV preflop in order to rake in the bigger +EV postflop plays).

Each and every decision, ask yourself this: 'if I were sitting here a million times over, what play would be the most +EV, knowing how the other players play, how the table is reacting, and who is still in'. You always should be AT EACH AND EVERY DECISIONmaking the most +EV/ least -EV decision to fold, call or bet.


Call it 'Carter's Million-Hand Rule'. Though apparently Sigmund Freud came up with it.

[Suigin406]

carter, can u provide more details on y u feel fr nlhe is high-variance?? just wondering...

[diebitter]

I feel the opposite.

I'll refine it some though: Against decent-ish players, it's pretty low. Against calling nitwits, it's still low (if you play them right). Against the top-end tricky players, it goes up again.

[Suigin406]

^^ok, i misunderstood what u meant when u said
"IMO, FR NLHE is probably the poker game that is least immune to variance", i thought u were indicating that there was a bit more variance in that game...ur last post clears it up for me though, thx

[diebitter]

Jesus, I completely said that wrong. I meant 'most immune to variance'. Sorry.

[Das Budrick]

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Jesus, I completely said that wrong. I meant 'most immune to variance'. Sorry.

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lol you really confused me at first

[5string]

definately be prepared for bigger downswings than that OP. To date my biggest is around 25

[QTip]

I'm a newbie to NL for certain; however, I'm not to poker in general. I've played more hands than most will get in during their infatuation with this game. The biggest thing I've learned in playing as many hands as I have, is that most players, even some of the very best imo, have no idea what an animal this game is. The stretches that can be had in poker are really fascinating. Most severly underestimate the luck factor in this game. I just read Ed's article linked here "When Do I Know I'm Awesome", and I found it to be refreshing...probably the best short article I've ever read on poker. It get so tiring seeing people talk about results over 100k hands or some other small sample and talk about their success or failure. It's just nonsense. I've gone over this in several posts over in the limit forums when I was playing that game. Most don't know me over in the NL forums, but I posted a lot in the limit forums. I played for a living for about 8 months, and it was an amazing experience. I think it may benefit some to read the tail end of my experience. Here are a couple posts as my run came to a close.

Here's one

Here's another

There are others, but probably not worth the time to find them.

I don't think it really matters much to talk about it though, because for 99% of players, it just won't sink in unless they experience it. I've observed the verbiage of players like Tommy Angelo, and I can sense the spirit behind his posts and so forth...he gets it because he's seen enough of it. Most won't.

I made a lot of money playing for that 8 months. More than I've ever made at a job for a year. However, the psychological beatings of the game was more than I could handle in the situation I was in at that time. As I read through some of the first books written on the game by the authors featured in this forum, it became painfully clear to me that there really wasn't a grasp on the long run of this game. It really only makes sense tho. I mean...these authors could only play like 100 hands a day or so. I was just getting settled in my chair and would play that many.

I love Ed's line in this article "The best players, the one who stick around for life, are humble". As you read through the posts in these forums, it's obvious that humility is not the highlighted quality...probably more unattractive than honored. Most posters are probably young though, and this arrogance and general distain for something bigger than them is unthinkable at this stage in the game.

But...whatever. The game is really so much fun...and that's about it. There's money to be made, sure...lot's of it too. But it all must be played with a type of joyful hopelessness. I think this contradicts are greedy, competive, knowledge-hoarding young dispositions...not to mention the fact that those are some of the main reasons we play the game anyway. Keeps it interesting...

I'm rambling now...I'll stop.

[the_casino_kid]

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32buyin downswing in less than 100 hands I win



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WHAT ON GODS GREEN EARTH.....HOW DO YOU LOSE THAT MANY BUYINS AT MICRO LIMITS HAHAHAHA, I COULDNT LOSE THAT MANY IF I TRIED!


....were you tilting???

actually 100 hands you must have been

[BingBangBoom]

QTIP..thx for the response. i appreciate it. Im glad you enjoyed that short article, I really like it too. Ill check out your posts that u linked for sure