$11 - Folded JJ pf.

[wpr101]

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Do you really read that much into a 4BB raise?

If I click the slider over 1 too many times I'm not going to go through the effort of clicking it back 1 time just to get it to 3xBB.

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If you have AA or KK I think you are very concious of how much you raise. You may be right about overreading that.

[Raj]

I mainly play Party 11's and in the earlier rounds, I almost always raise 4xBB with any PF worthy raising hand. I don't think you can really read that much into a 4xBB raise. Half of the donks on there, the amount of a raise is just a matter of personal preference, not a calculated maneuver to induce/discourage calls.

[Eagles]

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It isn't terrible at all.

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I would go so far as to say... standard?

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I don't think it's terrible, but I also don't think folding JJ here is standard in an $11.

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You're probably right, the problem is against an EP raiser and a caller you could be in serious trouble, I would probably go with it in the heat of the moment but I certainly wouldn't call and play it oop against two opponents.

Against any sort of decent opposition with a 4xBB raise UTG+1 this is a standard fold.

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Ya but in an 11 the majority are not decent opposition.

[kevkev60614]

Alright, I did my own math. It's probably riddled with errors, because Neteller is slow and I still don't have SNGPT. Here goes:

Assuptions:
1) both pf raiser and smooth caller have the same ranges
2) BB will stay the hell out of the way
3) If I fold, UTG+1 wins and MP3 loses no additional chips
4) ICM applies

If seke's ranges are right and I push:
I steal 20.11% of the time (equity .12)
UTG+1 only calls, I win 14.36% of the time (.1782)
UTG+1 only calls, I lose 10.37% of the time (0)
MP3 only calls, I win 14.36% of the time (.1792)
MP3 only calls, I lose 10.37% of the time (0)
Both call, I win 11.98% of the time (.2294)
Both call, I lose 18.44% of the time (0)
Weighted average equity = .1029
Equity after fold = .0875

If seke's range is wrong, the correct pf raise, smooth call range is 99+,AT+,KQ, and the range on calling my push is TT+,AJ+...
I steal 13.10% of the time (equity .12)
UTG+1 only calls, I win 11.44% of the time (.1782)
UTG+1 only calls, I lose 11.65% of the time (0)
MP3 only calls, I win 11.44% of the time (.1792)
MP3 only calls, I lose 11.65% of the time (0)
Both call, I win 13.90% of the time (.2294)
Both call, I lose 26.81% of the time (0)
Weighted average equity = .0885
Equity after fold = .0875

So even if seke was wildly off in his ranges, pushing was correct. Thanks for all of the responses. If anyone finds errors in my math or methodology, let me know.

[seke2]

I'm surprised the stealing percentage is so small. I figured they'd fold more often when you pushed. But I guess I also underestimated the chances of you winning if called.

In any case, the reality is probably somewhere between my wide ranges and your tight ranges, and all of that range is +EV.

Call and evaluate didn't seem to be too much worse than pushing either, for those who prefer that line.