How to extract the most from nuts?

[Beachman42]

[ QUOTE ]
This is one of my many weaknesses - when have the nuts how to play for max profit (the board is scaring too)?

Bellagio $2000NL tournament. First level. Everyone plays tight.
25/50. (4000 starting chips) UTG raises to 250. I am at MP look down A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ?

I call. 2 players pot 575.
Flop T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG bets 575
Hero? (amount, if raise)

Turn 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG checks
Hero? (amount, if bet)

River 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG checks
Hero? (amount, if bet)

[/ QUOTE ]

I know its a nit, but AK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] isn't the nuts here.

Anyway, I think a PSB is in order for the turn. There are too many interesting holdings that will stay for the river.

[NYWalker]

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I think this hand needs to be presented step by step. It is hard to answer for the turn without knowing the flop action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the discussion. Adanthar, Jeff, Erato,Drj and all others (yes betgo) made good analysis.

Here's how I played (pretty much in line with Adanthar's very first comment)

25/50. (4000 starting chips) UTG raises to 250. I am at MP look down A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I call. 2 players pot 575.
Flop T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG bets 575
Hero call.
(To me, if I raise, only Queens will likely to call;TT,JJ,KK,AA,AK will push/big-reaise back and it's hard for me to call when against majority of them. )
2 players - pot 1725
Turn 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG checks
Hero check

I understand the turn decision is very *quesitionable*. Re-evaluate the hand, I think I should bet the turn, even overbet the turn against thinking players. (but no read on this guy so far)

2 players, pot 1725
River 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG checks
Hero?
1. What's the max bet to get called here?
2. Can we induce a bluff?

[NYWalker]

if villain has Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], I assume he'd bet the turn most of the time, right?

[BarryLyndon]

~700. I think that looks like a weak enough bet to get him to come in with his set or something like that. I think that if you start hitting 900, you lose a appreciable amount of calling equity. Also, I think that there is no [censored] way he's going to try to rebluff you here, but if he is, ~700 sounds like you have a fighting chance at a sophisticated bluff (set of Jacks tries to bluff made flush / straight?).

Also, I think checking the turn is ok.

[betgo]

I don't mind the flat call on the flop. However, if you raise, you have a very easy call of a push, since you are even or a 3-2 dog against those hands that push.

I kind of like a reraise allin on the flop, although it is kind of a tell that you have a draw. You don't mind picking up a significant pot, or being called as a coin flip.

I think you have to bet the turn. Villain probably has a big hand he doesn't want to fold. There is a good chance he has 10 outs to win on the river, so no reason to give him a free card. I really think the turn check is awful.

[DrJ]

[ QUOTE ]
since you are even or a 3-2 dog against those hands that push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't see where you're getting these odds from. TT, JJ, KK are all better than 3-2. KK is 1.7 to to 1, the others are 1.6 to 1. That's a pretty hefty dog.

AA is close to even money, but still a slight dog.

QQ isn't pushing, so AK is the only hand you're ahead of.

[shaundeeb]

not betting that turn is a crime.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
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since you are even or a 3-2 dog against those hands that push.

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I just don't see where you're getting these odds from. TT, JJ, KK are close to 2-1 favorites.

[/ QUOTE ]

From 2-dimes. OK, here goes. Do you realize you have TPTK, anut flush draw, and a gutshot straight draw?


http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2582417
pokenum -h ac kc - as qs -- kd jc tc
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jc Tc Kd
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kc 384 38.79 537 54.24 69 6.97 0.423
As Qs 537 54.24 384 38.79 69 6.97 0.577

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2582410
pokenum -h ac kc - ks kh -- kd jc tc
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jc Tc Kd
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kc 363 36.67 618 62.42 9 0.91 0.371
Ks Kh 618 62.42 363 36.67 9 0.91 0.629

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2582413
pokenum -h ac kc - js jh -- kd jc tc
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jc Tc Kd
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kc 376 37.98 605 61.11 9 0.91 0.384
Js Jh 605 61.11 376 37.98 9 0.91 0.616

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2582863
pokenum -h ac kc - js ks -- kd jc tc
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jc Tc Kd
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kc 507 51.21 469 47.37 14 1.41 0.519
Ks Js 469 47.37 507 51.21 14 1.41 0.481

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2582868
pokenum -h ac kc - as ah -- kd jc tc
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jc Tc Kd
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kc 421 42.53 467 47.17 102 10.30 0.477
As Ah 467 47.17 421 42.53 102 10.30 0.523

[Jake M.]

Though you don't have "the nuts", you're going to want to try and get all the money in here. If you're really scared of a straight flush here, then you are tighter than a frog's ace. I may actually decide to raise it up here on the flop. You have tons of outs (assuming he doesn't have AQ). His pot sized bet on the flop means a lot of things. He could have lower clubs, he could have J 10 suited for bottom two pair, hands of that sort. I would think if he had flopped a straight, he would bet less than pot. Though he may bet pot here still because of the club draw, to me it just doesn't feel like he flopped a straight. He may have a set and is willing to bet pot figuring you could be on a straight and/or flush draw. It seems like his pot sized bet is to protect his hand from getting drawn out on. So I feel like if you were to raise him here, he may laydown or if he does have 2 pair or a flush draw, you might be able to get him to laydown. If he calls, you still have a reasonable amount of outs. To be honest when he bets pot, the pot is already 1150 so I may just push all in here for 3750. I figure if you raise to just 1200+ more or so, you're virtually pot committing yourself. If you had started with 10k or 20k in chips, I feel like raising to 1200+ and not pushing all in would be a better solution. But our stacks dictate action here. For me, if I can get into a situation where I can double up early in a MTT, I'll take that chance.

[DrJ]

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since you are even or a 3-2 dog against those hands that push.

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I just don't see where you're getting these odds from. TT, JJ, KK are close to 2-1 favorites.

[/ QUOTE ]

From 2-dimes. OK, here goes. Do you realize you have TPTK, anut flush draw, and a gutshot straight draw?


http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2582417
pokenum -h ac kc - as qs -- kd jc tc
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jc Tc Kd
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kc 384 38.79 537 54.24 69 6.97 0.423
As Qs 537 54.24 384 38.79 69 6.97 0.577

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2582410
pokenum -h ac kc - ks kh -- kd jc tc
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jc Tc Kd
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kc 363 36.67 618 62.42 9 0.91 0.371
Ks Kh 618 62.42 363 36.67 9 0.91 0.629

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2582413
pokenum -h ac kc - js jh -- kd jc tc
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jc Tc Kd
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kc 376 37.98 605 61.11 9 0.91 0.384
Js Jh 605 61.11 376 37.98 9 0.91 0.616

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2582863
pokenum -h ac kc - js ks -- kd jc tc
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jc Tc Kd
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kc 507 51.21 469 47.37 14 1.41 0.519
Ks Js 469 47.37 507 51.21 14 1.41 0.481

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2582868
pokenum -h ac kc - as ah -- kd jc tc
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jc Tc Kd
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kc 421 42.53 467 47.17 102 10.30 0.477
As Ah 467 47.17 421 42.53 102 10.30 0.523

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but are you aware that only 1 of your outs actually gives you an unbeatable hand against many of those holdings - the Q of clubs? Even after that 9c turn, the opp isn't drawing dead if he was playing 99, TT, JJ, KK.

62.42 / 36.67 = 1.7 to 1. That's KK
61.11 / 37.98 = 1.6 to 1. That's JJ, TT is about the same.

AQ is 1.4 to 1.

AA is close to even money, but you're still a dog.

KJ shouldn't be in this guy's range if he's tight and raising that early.

Overall, you can't be happy about the range of cards that are going to push back at you. Sure it's an easy call since you painted yourself in a corner and put such a large amount of your stack in there already. But, I don't know why you'd intentionally paint yourself in that corner unless you are just scared of post flop play.