How to calculate whether rebuy/addon is +ev/-ev ?

[Shadowlike]

Ok, I have read a lot about that rebuying after busting out is +EV.

Here is a small argument suggesting that not rebuying and playing the tourney as a freezeout is better.

Imagine a perfect world where you live forever and your rebuy tourney of choice starts every 5 minutes with the same number of players and the same average skill level.

So, when you bust out after say 30 mins, you have a choice between rebuying or registering for a new tournament where the average stack is not well above your stack + you have more time to extract money from your opponents + expected dead money (others will bust and donate) - of course you are compensated for that by a lot of already existing dead money in your original tourney if you choose to rebuy (others have already busted out).

If you think that the first option, rebuy, is the best, how does that fit together with the common advice to play the rebuy period agressively with high risks? After all, you could as well play tight and probably come out with a slight plus after the add-on period without taking big risks.

I think in this situation it would be better advice to register for a new tournament with exactly the same conditions.

If this is right, it follows that even if it is +EV to rebuy if you are a good player, it is more +EV not to rebuy. But that would imply that for worse players with a skill only slightly above average, rebuying would turn the event from +EV to -EV.

Therefore, rebuying may be good from a practical point of view (you life time and the number of rebuy tournaments are limited), but from a theoretical point it isn't.

Is there some flaw in my argumentation?

[reecelights]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I have read a lot about that rebuying after busting out is +EV.

Here is a small argument suggesting that not rebuying and playing the tourney as a freezeout is better.

Imagine a perfect world where you live forever and your rebuy tourney of choice starts every 5 minutes with the same number of players and the same average skill level.

So, when you bust out after say 30 mins, you have a choice between rebuying or registering for a new tournament...

Is there some flaw in my argumentation?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. You pay the rake again by buying into another tourney. You don't in a rebuy. This was discussed an another recent thread.

Take a single tournament on Stars with 1500 chips for starting stacks and rebuys and 2000 chips for add ons. In a single $11 rebuy you get 8000 chips for $51. In 5 freezeouts you get 7500 chips for $55.

Over the long run you will make less money because the cards will fall the same whether with half the average stack or the average stack. You still have to double up numerous times, not just one, in each to make the money.

[paddymcg21]

so the average stack is 15k. You have just been crippled to 500 and are given the option to add on. You think 10$ for an extra 2,000 chips is a wise investment?? I disagree with omaha about 50%.

[omaha]

Flaws are many.

Assuming you are equally skilled as the remaining opponents, it IS a wise investment to rebuy for another 10 for 2k chips, regardless of whether the average is 2k, 5k, or 20k. It is difficult to believe, particularly when you shove crud cards with 5bb after crud cards, bust out and rebuy, but it IS still ev+. VEry hard to believe when you are on the receiving end, but it is money well spent (assuming you can handle the variance and the mental pain)

It is +ev, but, very, VERY high variance. ie it is positive in the long long run, but consider that, particularly in mtts, your profit really (say in a 180) comes from a top 5 finish.

So, how many times will we go from a cripple, to a top 5 finish? Answer is not very many at all, but from a mathematical viewpoint, it is a good deal.

Hence my comments about considering it as a 50 freezout, as opposed to a 10 rebuy.

Also, playing tight. Well, lets see, consider a first round in a 10 freezout, and assume people will go ai with aa, kk, qq, ak. In a rebuy, this may extend to 88+, ajsuited, etc.

Hence, if we play tight with our jj, we may miss the (very likely chance ) of trebling up against A10 s and 99.

Shadowlike made a good comment about your skill level, compared to the remaining players, and good comments about dead money. Even if say 30 % of players are knocked out and dont rebuy, and we assume that our skill level is below the remaining 70%, I would argue that you should not have entered the tourney in the first place!

Also, you pay a second rake of 5 or ten percent on the next tourney

Think of say a 10rebuy as a 50 or 60 freezout.

With 180 players, what should our roll be? It is talked about 100 or more buyins for a 10 man sng, so it would have to be a massive roll for a 50 freezout.

I think the main problem (which is what i used to do), was play the 10 rebuy, and think i was adequately rolled. I was probably alright for the 10 freezout, but was far, far underrolled, both financially and emotionally for the 10r.

Solution? simple, give up the 10 r, just play the 10 freezouts,and the 3r.

[mastr]

its in the bill chen book exact calculations of this. Basically its 99.9999 % of the time +EV when you get a better deal then you initially did at the start of the tourney, like it is for every rebuy tourney online. AKA 109 for 1500 vs 100 for 2000 at addon time. Just always always take it, you're very very wrong if you ever don't