50nl FTP - Flops pair + flush draw but look at the action...

You don`t have much invested in the hand, and no FE Imo. I fold this.

[MTSuper7]

First, I agree that most villains will not lay down a set when the flush completes. They'll make a crying call if you push and have 9 outs to fill up or hit quads. Also, does anyone ever lead this flop? It would certainly help not being sandwiched between the bettor and raiser and better disguises our hand.

The dilemma is being sandwiched here. There's no guarantee that CO will just call if we call. CO could push. If the button also pushes, we're just barely getting the odds we need to call. However, we aren't getting 2:1 current odds on a flop call because we're almost 100% guaranteed to have to pay on the turn to see the river, at which point we only have about a 17% chance of hitting our flush.

However, we have great implied odds if we hit our flush on the turn. There is $31 in the pot right now, but CO has about $42 left, meaning that our $16 call here will probably win us a minimum of $73 (current pot plus button's stack) if we make our flush on the turn (or rather 80% of that on average since villain will improve to a full house or better just under 20% of the time on the river). This doesn't account for any money that CO might also put in, meaning our implied odds are at worst 4.5:1 to call this flop bet. If we're relatively confident that CO will not push here (not sure how we can be), it looks like we can call here.

Assuming we call and CO cjust alls, the pot would sit around $57. If a blank hits (no flush, board doesn't pair), we need implied odds of about 5:1 to warrant continuing with our hand, which pretty much means we're done with the hand unless there's some pretty weak betting or checking on the turn by everyone.

Based on how tight and aggressive both of these opponents seem, there's nothing wrong with folding here to wait for a better spot. I'm not a huge fan of gambling it up with tight, aggressive players. If I'm sitting at a table with two players with those stats, they aren't the players I'm looking to tangle with. Hopefully you've got one or two 40/3/.25 type players to make your money off of. If not, find another table.

[avfletch]

[ QUOTE ]
You don`t have much invested in the hand, and no FE Imo. I fold this.

[/ QUOTE ]

What range of hands do you put him on that implies 0 FE? I know I put him on such a range above but I'm starting to rethink that based on discussion with Marvin.

[marvin_1935]

you can add 6c7c to the range, it only improves our equity. i picked this range from his most likely holdings after we've seen pf and flop action. i wanted to know if i have an equity edge vs his likely holdings, so i stoved his likely holdings.

stoving this range will not skew the numbers, stoving only his calling range will skew the numbers, as it doesn't take into account our FE. i have no idea what you're talking about when you bring in harrington, but it has no bearing on this hand. our FE is much greater than .1*31. our FE is the difference between our equity vs his range and our equity vs his calling range, ie when he folds.

fwiw, i think his calling range is 88/22.

[Daniel LeClaire]

I think the preflop call is really bad. But maybe it's just me.

I think it's a clear fold, especially when you consider their stats.

[monkover]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the preflop call is really bad. But maybe it's just me.

I think it's a clear fold, especially when you consider their stats.

[/ QUOTE ]


No it´s def not that easy!!

[ama0330]

COMPUTER SAYS NO

Has everyone considered that we are playing against the ranges of TWO players here? Dont forget that though we may be close against one players range, we have a 3 way pot to consider here. I calculated it as such...


Board: Ks 2d Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.469% 42.23% 00.24% 561725 3164.67 { As2s }
Hand 1: 40.935% 40.50% 00.44% 538694 5788.17 { JJ+, AQs+ }
Hand 2: 16.596% 16.38% 00.22% 217848 2899.17 { 22+, KsQs, QsJs, 9s8s }

This may be closer than a lot of you are saying so far.

Note that i have given player one a pretty nitty range here. As his range improves, so does our equity. ranging these players is pretty difficult because their ranges are fluid ie. we cant assign the same range to them preflop as we are on the turn.

Board: Ks 2d Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.904% 42.75% 00.16% 921809 3367.17 { As2s }
Hand 1: 38.520% 38.14% 00.38% 822335 8290.17 { 88+, AQs+ }
Hand 2: 18.576% 18.32% 00.26% 394959 5603.67 { 22+, KsQs, QsJs, 9s8s }


I think its probably a coinflip but the pot odds are sick.

[avfletch]

[ QUOTE ]
you can add 6c7c to the range, it only improves our equity. i picked this range from his most likely holdings after we've seen pf and flop action. i wanted to know if i have an equity edge vs his likely holdings, so i stoved his likely holdings.

[/ QUOTE ]

Indeed, I was just curious why you'd include K8s but not 67s.

[ QUOTE ]
stoving this range will not skew the numbers, stoving only his calling range will skew the numbers, as it doesn't take into account our FE. i have no idea what you're talking about when you bring in harrington, but it has no bearing on this hand. our FE is much greater than .1*31. our FE is the difference between our equity vs his range and our equity vs his calling range, ie when he folds.

fwiw, i think his calling range is 88/22.

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct me if I'm wrong but pokerstove simulates the results for our hand vs his range at show down so stoving anything that you think he folds doesn't work. Since our equity for that part of his range is 100% of what's already in the pot.

My reference to Harrington was a section in his book where he says that you should always includes a rough 10% "he's making a move bluffing" factor since people have the thought in their heads that they need to do such things from time to time. And at the time giving him a 10% chance of such things seemed reasonable. Since then I've come to the conclusion that my range is pretty wrong.

[Jouster777]

I think a villain with these stats will fold AK to a shove here about 50% of the time. I also think BTN 3bets AK preflop most of the time (call it ~60%). If we make these assumptions the EV calculation changes a lot. Ignoring the less likely hands, villain is now AK/88/22 50%/37.5%/12.5%

With those assumptions and ignoring bluffs and other 2 still to act EV becomes:
EV=.25(31)+.25(-1.7)+.5(-20.8) = -$3.08 (though this will turn positive if there is more than one call)

I also think that those saying this is clearly push/fold are wrong. Calling is a very viable option here. If we assume we have 10 outs we only need to get an additional 1/2 psb in the pot when we hit the turn to make it EV+ and that is worst case with the assumption that UTG and CO fold. If both of them come along we have immediate pot odds to call. If CO pushes and BTN calls we have immediate odds to call also. If we call and whiff the turn there is still value left as villain will not always price us out.

I'd say this is fold~call>push

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
Correct me if I'm wrong but pokerstove simulates the results for our hand vs his range at show down so stoving anything that you think he folds doesn't work. Since our equity for that part of his range is 100% of what's already in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ] This is definitely correct. Very common error to calculate EV based on the original range when FE is involved. Calculation has to be based on the equity against the calling range.