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#1
04-04-2007, 04:18 AM
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50nl FTP - Flops pair + flush draw but look at the action...
CO is 9.5/6.5/1.75 over 100 hands.
BTN is 21.5/15/1.5 over 80 hands Neither has done anything that would make me call them donks or idiots. Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com SB ($47) Hero ($108) UTG ($19.15) MP ($32.15) CO ($61.10) Button ($60.55) Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $2.25</font>, Button calls $2.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $1.75, UTG calls $1.75. Flop: ($9.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $5.75</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $16</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font> best way to play this is? I'm not really sure, I'm staring down a c-bet from the tightest player on the table, who might very well have AK, and can't fold it. The raise worries me, but I don't know if he knows how tight the CO is. My original plan was to c/r the flop, and I'd probably head to the felt against one player, but with two players in positon against me, I'm not really sure what the best play is. Opinions? 
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#3
04-04-2007, 04:39 AM
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Re: 50nl FTP - Flops a combo draw but look at the action...
You hardly have FE here imo... Button coldcalling 2.25$ screams like a set on that flop imo. CO might have AK easily, if you say he's a complete nit...
That's why I don't think your Aces or 2s are any good outs here. Also, Button is too deep, he will raise you all-in as it looks like, you don't wanna call that with FD only...
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#4
04-04-2007, 05:38 AM
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Re: 50nl FTP - Flops a combo draw but look at the action...
This always confuses me:
Pot: $32. To call: $16. Pot odds: 2/1. We are 2/1 to hit flush w/2 cards to come. Tonne of dead money. = push getting correct odds? Is that not right? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] If villain has set, we are not in such great shape, but doesn't the dead money make up for the times he has a set, especially if we add in the TINY amount of FE we may have v. AK/smaller fd's/air?
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#5
04-04-2007, 06:18 AM
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Re: 50nl FTP - Flops a combo draw but look at the action...
[ QUOTE ]
You hardly have FE here imo... Button coldcalling 2.25$ screams like a set on that flop imo. CO might have AK easily, if you say he's a complete nit... That's why I don't think your Aces or 2s are any good outs here. Also, Button is too deep, he will raise you all-in as it looks like, you don't wanna call that with FD only... [/ QUOTE ] + [ QUOTE ] This always confuses me: Pot: $32. To call: $16. Pot odds: 2/1. We are 2/1 to hit flush w/2 cards to come. Tonne of dead money. = push getting correct odds? Is that not right? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] If villain has set, we are not in such great shape, but doesn't the dead money make up for the times he has a set, especially if we add in the TINY amount of FE we may have v. AK/smaller fd's/air? [/ QUOTE ] = my answer: Imo we donīt have any FE at all. The problem that I think shoving without any FE has is that we have a huge -EV Situation if the tight CO folds his letīs say AK and button calls. Then we are getting like 75 to 60 on a 2 to 1 draw and thatīs hugely -EV!! Weīd need 120 to 60 to prafotably make this move and the problem is that if button has flopped a set we really are in bad shape. Board: 8s Ks 2h Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 28.586% 28.59% 00.00% 283 0.00 { As2s } Hand 1: 71.414% 71.41% 00.00% 707 0.00 { 8d8h } Weīd need like 180 to 60 pot odds b/c our equity would suck ass through straw. So imo a flat call would be the best and if the thight guy in the co calls as well weīre getting ok odds and we do have implied odds. If CO does indeed call I would fold a flush though if it pairs the board b/c at least one of them will have made their boat. I donīt think CO will call though (or at least he canīt with AK). So call and hope for a spade.
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#8
04-04-2007, 06:59 AM
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Re: 50nl FTP - Flops a combo draw but look at the action...
cause ur implied odds are low. It is easier for the Villians to put you on a hand and they have always teh opportunity to fold behind instead of lead out when the flush hits.
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#9
04-04-2007, 07:09 AM
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Re: 50nl FTP - Flops a combo draw but look at the action...
You really think villain will fold a set just b/c a flush draw did get there? I donīt think so. Imo heīll chase hi full house and call an all in on a spade turn. He pretty much will never get away from a set. Any you say our imlied odds are low?! no they arenīt! He got >60 bb left. thatīs not low.
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#10
04-04-2007, 07:29 AM
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Re: 50nl FTP - Flops a combo draw but look at the action...
Great posts Monkover. Thanks.
Suppose we PS for btn's range: -------------------------- Board: 8s Ks 2h Hand 0: 37.687% { As2s } Hand 1: 62.313% { KK+, 88, 22, AKs, AKo } ----------------------------------- Does that change things at all? That's 1.7:1 + dead money + FE over AK. Sheesh, depressing how much I suck at this basic stuff.
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