Q9s blind steal.

[Aaron W.]

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So I was looking for a way to show my hand down cheaply. b/f line on the turn and checking behind is river is best if I think that the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] didn't help the the villain more than 50% of the time. If the villain will check-raises the turn more than 50% of the time then it's better to check and hope that I manage to suck out on the river.

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Where did this 50% come from?

[Point Blank]

note: not betting the turn in many of these situations is just so wrong ... it often has your opponent leading out on the river in hopes of taking the pot after your show of weakness (so if this is not the result you want, bet the turn and check the river if called ... note: villain can not fold when you check or call [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

on this hand ... betting is (like) almost your only option!
what do you think SB is donking the flop with after cold calling pre flop ... I'm thinking flush draw, str8-draw or a hands like JT QT, J9, Q9, K9 ... he also looks like a bet/fold type too (and a follow-up on the turn, may get a fold from a better hand ... if checkraised you can't let this go fast!)

Personally I love the turn ace ... another option is to call the flop donk, and raise a lot of turn cards (this is one of them ... a couple that suck are the Jack and 8, or any [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])

[TJO]

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[ QUOTE ]
So I was looking for a way to show my hand down cheaply. b/f line on the turn and checking behind is river is best if I think that the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] didn't help the the villain more than 50% of the time. If the villain will check-raises the turn more than 50% of the time then it's better to check and hope that I manage to suck out on the river.

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Where did this 50% come from?

[/ QUOTE ]It comes from my tired mind after probably overthinking this (out of me arse).

Whether I check or bet I usually have to invest one bet to go to the showdown. So I need to win the pot about 22% of the time to break even. So 50% is not correct estimate. Sometimes my I manage to get a cheap showdown and I still lose. So I need to dodge the c/r some x% of the time. I don't know how to estimate that x.

When I bet the turn I forfeit my chance to see the river for free and my chance to suck out. But I only improve to win on the river about 8% (4/46 I discounted one out) of the time if I'm behind a pair of aces.

But this is so obvious spot to bet when villain can have a very wide range that I'm wasting my time with my retarded calculations.

[Grease]

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*grunch*

Pre-flop and flop look good. Bet turn and expect your opponent to fold. If you get raised, fold. If you get called, take the free showdown.

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I like it.