calling down agaisnt l-p's

[kerowo]

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Sometimes I know what the other guy has, and I convince myself to call because its "+EV"

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BLOODY EXACTLY what I'm trying to say.

I'm not trying to say I'm a good hand reader. I'm not.

But it goes like this, 'wow, he's sure betting hard. Does he have the straight? No way he flopped a straight, why would he cold-call with 68o? I've got to push this flop in case he's drawing. Holy crap, he 3banged me, he's got to have at least 2p. But no way he flopped a straight, that never happens. I'll call down just to be sure cos most of the time he isn't on the straight.

2-3 BB later, villain shows the straight.

And I think 'marty, you unmitigated [censored], you KNEW this was going to happen. It's in your player notes: his raises mean big hands. WTF are you calling for when he know he's only 3banging with hands that beat you.

HANG YOUR HEAD IN SHAME [/tall guy from that bit on the simpsons with nelson]

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Selective memory. You don't remember the times he showed a busted straight or flush draw, or worse when you checked down against some idiot raising 72o on a A high board.

[Big Folder]

There is a great SSHE quote that says "Pay off with confidence." Check out hand quiz #8 on page 307.

Obviously you don't take this too far, but in big pots with an overpair, I'd have to be seeing some pretty stiff resistance from a passive player and a pretty bad board to fold.

Usually if you meet tons of resistance you're looking at 2-pair, which you have outs against and the odds to chase. Even if you don't improve, when you get to the river the pot is often large enough that you should call anyways.

As Mr. Miller says, "... paying off is the correct strategy. Some people ... thing if they 'played better' they could make the 'correct fold.' Paying off is not a sucker play ... its part of the game."

[Guitierez]

Very good example. Well spotted, BigFolder.

This is exactly the way to go. In 5 cases you pay off to get your investments back in the 6th.

For all who tend to follow the weak/tight approach reread Ed Miller's classic post. It still holds up.

Down with MUBS!

[martybonus]

good points kerowo, BF, gut.

lemme clarify.

i'm not talking about a single, final call on the river in a big pot. I've read SSHE too, in my quest to stop sucking at poker [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
We're calling a single, final river bet if we think our equity is worth 1BB. No brainer.

What I'm talking about is different. Just this:

1) Even accounting for kerowo's accurate suggestion that selective memory may be at work here, when l-p's put up heavy resistance or come alive on the flop, but ESP on the later streets, our equity is virtually nil. Maybe 5-10%.

2) Therefore when we call a cap (or cap ourselves) the flop and call the turn TO SEE the river, we're making a fundamental theorem error. The final bet on the river may or may not be a mistake (based on pot size), but the call down TO the river IS a mistake.

It's not MUBS (see my post about that, I'm all to familiar with MUBS :P) it's just common sense. If we know villains ONLY raise and reraise with 2p or better and our hand is KK or AA or whatever - big but not monstrous- we're making an error when we cap the flop and then call down. each bet we put in the pot is an error.

As big folder said, we musn't let this get out of hand.

And I'm arguing that by calling down with KK or AA in SPITE of heavy resistance from l-p's, we are getting out of hand.

Yes, l-p's sometimes do crazy stuff, we sometimes get saved on the river, and sometimes they are bluffing. but it is nothing like 1/6 of the time. Lucky if it's even 1/10 of the time.

Although calling the final river bet may be correct if the pot size demands it, calling TO SEE the river when our equity is only 5-10% is definitley not. Even with AA. unless villain is on 2p (which we have counterfeit outs against), we're drawing to 2 outs. The pot would have to be MASSIVE.

I'm not talking about the final call which is most likely an error but is justified by pot size. I'm talking about all of the errors we make BEFORE the final call in which the pot is still modest, we are pretty certain we're beat but we put 2-3 BB more in to see the river and SD. The error we make every time we don't think VERY hard about folding when l-p's push hard back at our aggression on the flop and on later streets.