Top set (AAA) facing huge river over bet with 3 flush board

[BingBangBoom]

He could have so made that bet with 99 hitting it on the river..he didnt put you on a flush draw since you were betting out ..just a thought

[poon]

I dont know how aggressive players are at NL200 but no won thinks hero played his hand weak and maybe villain is trying to push him off a hand? im not sure but i think this is air 20% of the time. maybe a leak of mine is thinking people bluff to much when they make weird plays like this.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont know how aggressive players are at NL200 but no won thinks hero played his hand weak and maybe villain is trying to push him off a hand? im not sure but i think this is air 20% of the time. maybe a leak of mine is thinking people bluff to much when they make weird plays like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

even if it is air 20% of the time, if its better hands the other 80% its still an easy fold

[jenson]

The consensus on the board is that I under bet the turn. I agree that I should have bet more; I’m just not convinced that my turn bet “ruined” the hand.

I just read something in the Skalansky / Miller book "No Limit Hold ‘Em Theory and Practice" that I think applies directly to the turn bet size on this hand.

It begins on page 53 in the "Don’t Take Away Their Rope" section of the "Bet Sizing" chapter. The example has hero holding QhQs on a Qd 7d 2c 4s board. The pot is $100. Both Hero and Villain have $400 behind. You assume villain is on a flush draw.

Here's a synopsis:

"You have top set and the 4d and 2d make your opponent’s flush, but give you a full house. Your opponent now has seven outs instead of nine, so he’s 5.3 to 1 to beat you. By our earlier reasoning, you should offer no better than 5 to 1 pot odds, so you should bet at least $25 (offering $125-to-$25)"

"But our earlier reasoning doesn’t hold anymore! Why not? Because if the 4d or 2d comes, not only do you not lose, but you stand to win your opponent’s remaining $400 on the river."

"Because your opponent will occasionally make a second-best hand and get stacked, you’d prefer that he draw for free than that he fold. The lower bound of your betting range isn’t $25 – it’s $0"

"Obviously, you’d rather bet and have your opponent call than check. But you should bet an amount that you’re fairly sure your opponent will call, even if that’s less than $25"

I’d appreciate your thoughts on this quote. Thanks!