Top set (AAA) facing huge river over bet with 3 flush board

jenson · #1 03-15-2007, 08:17 AM

Not enough hands vs. villain for PT stats to be meaningful. Villain hasn't really gotten out of line.

Full Tilt Poker
$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
8 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

Stack Sizes
MP1: $325.15
MP2: $83
Hero (CO): $190.80
BTN: $73.85
SB: $189.65
BB: $230.60
UTG: $200
UTG+1: $320.40

Preflop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A

($3, 8 players)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $2, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $10, BTN folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $8
Pot Size: $23

Flop: 7

2

3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($23, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $15, UTG+1 calls $15
Pot Size: $53

Turn: 7

2

3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [A

] ($53, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $22, UTG+1 calls $22
Pot Size: $97

River: 7

2

3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A

[9

] ($97, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets all in for $273.40, Hero ?

The pot is now $240. Hero has $143.80 left.

I think that many will argue that I should have bet more on both the flop and turn. This is probably true.

But what to do now? I've got the Ac. He can't know he has the nut flush. I really wish I had a better read on villain.

bottomset · #2 03-15-2007, 08:35 AM

your turn bet sucks ass

its a 1.5x pot overbet which isn't that huge

wallenborn · #3 03-15-2007, 08:39 AM

Fold. He doesn't need the nut flush do push here.

And, yes, you must bet more on flop and turn. Before the river, there is $97 in the pot. On flop and turn he paid $37 to see the turn and river cards, that's 38% of the total pot. So your bets laid him 1.62-to-1, counting from the moment he sees his flush draw. He doesn't know you have the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], so he'd estimate his chances of winning the pot to be about 35% (around 1.7-to-1), so he'd need only very small implied odds to make his calls correct. He actually did you a favor by going all-in, allowing you to fold. A smaller bet, like $30, would probably have been called, making his play correct.

Bianculli · #4 03-15-2007, 09:32 AM

I agree that the turn bet has to be more -- enough so that the river plays itself. As played, I would fold.

onoble · #5 03-15-2007, 11:10 AM

Bet more on turn, like 3/4 pot.

As played you gotz to fold.

BT2 · #6 03-15-2007, 12:03 PM

as played fold it

AmonRaa · #7 03-15-2007, 05:45 PM

You ruined the hand on turn. As played, fold.

jenson · #8 03-15-2007, 07:05 PM

Ok Gents. Thanks much for the responses.

In fact, I did fold to his river push. At the time I thought it was a pretty clear fold but as I mulled it over I really started wondering who over-pushes here in Full Ring without the Ac. Just doesn't make much sense to me. You think a slow played lower set ever pushes here?

Regarding my turn bet. What is the consenus for a more appropriate bet size?

My $22 turn bet gave him 2.4 to 1.

2/3 of pot is $35, giving 1.5 to 1
3/4 of pot is $40, giving 1.3 to 1

One more question:
How would you play the turn if you had AKo? Assuming your preflop raise and flop CB were the same amounts. Thanks!

WotaWaster · #9 03-15-2007, 07:30 PM

I think flop bet is fine. As long as you would also fire 2/3pot with any hand you'd raised here.
Turn I bet close to the pot which will commit me to paying off a river flush without giving him the odds he needs to call profitably. If he has flopped a lower set I think he'll put it all in here. If he has a pair 88-JJ that A killed your action anyway so whatever you bet he folds. if he has flush draw let him call with bad odds or fold.

If I had Ak I would be more inclined to check turn behind and call a bet on a non club river (or bet around 1/2-2/3 pot if checked to). This may induce a bluff and keeps pot small when he has flopped a set.

GiantBuddha · #10 03-16-2007, 07:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
My $22 turn bet gave him 3.4 to 1.

2/3 of pot is $35, giving 2.5 to 1
3/4 of pot is $40, giving 2.3 to 1

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP. You have to add your bet to the pot when calculating the pot odds you're giving.

PSB offers 2 to 1 odds on a call
1/2PSB offers 3 to 1 odds
1/3PSB offers 4 to 1 odds

My bets are too small, too, but I'd certainly bet more than half pot here. You're pretty much only gonna get action from sets/two pair/flush draw here, and I don't think you lose the first two for a PSB, even, so make them pay.