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#11
02-15-2006, 04:52 AM
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Re: 10/20 KK
[ QUOTE ]
well I'm like 19/14, would never call preflop here with A7s or 87s, would not checkraise flop with AQ, and would probably not peel with a PP. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I also don't call here with A7s or 87s but I think that a lot of players do. Why would you not check/raise the flop with AQ? I'm cool with not peeling here with a pocket pair. [ QUOTE ] not saying checking the turn is bad (mostly because only one hand has a 5 outer) but this is auto river raise for me if I do. I think checking the turn and then calling the river is a very weak line. [/ QUOTE ] There is nothing wrong with taking a weak line when used prudently. I'm not going to raise the river just so that no one can accuse me of taking a weak line. 
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#12
02-15-2006, 05:07 AM
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Re: 10/20 KK
[ QUOTE ]
I also don't call here with A7s or 87s but I think that a lot of players do. [/ QUOTE ] well reason I bring it up is that villian's stats are very similar to my own in full games. [ QUOTE ] Why would you not check/raise the flop with AQ? [/ QUOTE ] I just think there's better ways to get value here and giving free cards is not a big deal. I think a TAG opponent who likely has a zillion hands on you/gives you respect will often get away from smaller PPs and AK if you play the flop fast. This is why I think WTSD is a hugely underrated stat to be watching - if its 40+ go ahead and fast play the flop as he's (UTG) is never folding TT etc. [ QUOTE ] There is nothing wrong with taking a weak line when used prudently. I'm not going to raise the river just so that no one can accuse me of taking a weak line. [/ QUOTE ] well again IMO you're missing out on a lot of value not raising the river given that you checked the turn. AQ/KQ/QJs will call, maybe even a PP will curiousity call. I just think the chance that you're beat here is extremely low.
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#13
02-15-2006, 05:37 AM
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Re: 10/20 KK
[ QUOTE ]
Why would you not check/raise the flop with AQ? [/ QUOTE ] I've seen tons of players left and right with wide range of reads and stats that do not always checkraise the flop with AQ. in fact many take a fancy to checkraising the turn.
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#14
02-15-2006, 06:52 AM
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Re: 10/20 KK
I take a different view, not because I think BB has a 7, but because he almost certainly knows you don't have one, and may try to check-raise the turn with any Q. However, if he has a Queen he will think that his kicker is worse than yours if you have AQ. If he has Q9 then we still win at the river.
lots of good things to think about there. what is best? The chances that he has a Queen are greater than he has held onto a 7 (And there are only 2 left as well). So I'd be relaxed to call a turn check-raise and call the river. If he checked to me at the river....hmm [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I don't like a bet-3bet because getting capped here would suck when he is telling you he can beat top pair, and you can win the same 3 bets by seeing the river and his cards. If he has a small pair he might call you down suspecting AK, another reason to bet the turn.
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#15
02-15-2006, 08:55 AM
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Re: 10/20 KK
So according to your post, you say that villain must hold AQ exactly, or a pocket pair. He can't have a flush draw because both the Qh and Kh are accounted for, and presumably if he folds A7s he folds AJs also.
I think that is an overly tight range, but even a moment's thought will show that checking the turn could be +EV even if that were the case. Lets postulate: If villain holds AQ he will call down turn and river. He might bet the river if the turn is checked. If villain holds PP he will fold the turn. But, if the turn is checked through he will either value bet the river or call a river bet. There are twelve ways villain could hold AQ. He would check and call both turn and river with this hand. So, jason's 'tricky' line makes 1 bet less than the standard bet-bet line. 12 hands x -1 bet = -12 Villain could have AA,QQ,77. But the action preflop and on the flop would make these unusual. Let's say these 10 hands were played like this only 10% of the time. That makes them effectively one hand. Jason's line saves him two bets when he was beaten. (By avoiding a river C/R, and then a river crying call) (10 hands x 10%) x +2 bets = +2 Finally our villain could have another PP and taken a flop peel. He will now fold the turn, but if you check the turn he will call a river bet or perhaps bet himself for value. Either way you make one more bet with these hands. I'm feeling generous so lets throw out 44-22 as too weak. That leaves 6 pocket pairs (36 hands). 36 hands x +1 bet = +36 In this example, over 49 hands we have made 26 bets. That is a +EV for jason's line of +.53 BB Finally, sometimes our free card loses the pot on the river. This is irrelevant if our opponent had AQ, since he was calling anyways. It only makes a difference if he rivers his pocket pair which he would have folded. This happens 2/43 of the time and loses us a 3 BB pot and a 1 BB crying call. 2/43 x (36/49) x -4 bets = -.14 BB Total EV for this particular opponent profile: +.39 BB Notice that you would have a lower EV for an aggressive opponent who would give you additional action with AQ on the turn, or who would call down the whole way with a PP. But, you would have a higher EV for an opponent with some chance of holding a 7, or for an opponent who might have a bad hand and would bluff the river. But for at least the profile you are describing, jason's line is _better_ than the bet-bet line.
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#19
02-17-2006, 05:45 PM
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Re: 10/20 KK
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I guess I killed this thread. Hey jason_t, I want some RESULTS! Just curious. [/ QUOTE ] Villain had QQ. [/ QUOTE ] You are the man. Some should tell him to never slow play.
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#20
02-17-2006, 11:36 PM
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Re: 10/20 KK
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I guess I killed this thread. Hey jason_t, I want some RESULTS! Just curious. [/ QUOTE ] Villain had QQ. [/ QUOTE ] You are losing a lot of value a lot of the time . . [/ QUOTE ] fyp
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