an Aussie review hand ...

[OziBattler]

fair enough but

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if I bet and it's 3bet behind me I may fold (on mono flop I can't value bottom set too high, if a couple of these guys really like their hands ... I'll assume I'm toast

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I think Wookies first post is pertinent..we have up to 10 boat outs. No way am I folding on the flop.

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but after the safe card hits we lead out (I have no idea why, I doubt we are in a position to be betting, if we have odds to draw then we should take them ... also, I think this is a really confusing play to your opponents - giving them the WFT effect)

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yep, Im sure they are wtfed...no way do they put me on 33 here..they put me on a flush surely.

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after the flop action + turn action + plus the river action ... once it's two back from these guys I don't think we are good here ever - after MP calls the turn donk, he does not have a flush (also, he is not aggressive enough to raise the flop on a draw) the 2 has helped him (and he is not loose enough to be playing J2, 82 or 32 - nor aggressive enough to raise any of those hands on the flop - but weak enough to limp JJ ... I think we are looking at JJ or 88 from MP and a flush from BTN more times than not)

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I cant say I totally agree with this. I have made a hand that is better than what my play of the hand indicates and thus my hand is somewhat hidden. My suspect flop and turn play reeks of someone who made a flush and buttons raise reeks of a big flush and MP slowed down on the turn because I confused the crap out of him [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I think it is mubsy to think we are beat by a better boat here and lets face it, Im not folding the river and if MP has us beat he is capping anyway - I like the cap here as Ill get paid off but a whole lot of hands that we beat. holla.

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if I bet and it's 3bet behind me I may fold (on mono flop I can't value bottom set too high, if a couple of these guys really like their hands ... I'll assume I'm toast

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I think Wookies first post is pertinent..we have up to 10 boat outs. No way am I folding on the flop.

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I'm having a conceptual problem with this - guess I'll need to work this out on paper (I just don't give too much value to bottom set here) ... I think we are in big trouble from somebody (especially with the cold callers, who wern't particularly retarded ... just standard loose and not very aggro)

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but after the safe card hits we lead out (I have no idea why, I doubt we are in a position to be betting, if we have odds to draw then we should take them ... also, I think this is a really confusing play to your opponents - giving them the WFT effect)

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yep, Im sure they are wtfed...no way do they put me on 33 here..they put me on a flush surely.

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after the flop action + turn action + plus the river action ... once it's two back from these guys I don't think we are good here ever - after MP calls the turn donk, he does not have a flush (also, he is not aggressive enough to raise the flop on a draw) the 2 has helped him (and he is not loose enough to be playing J2, 82 or 32 - nor aggressive enough to raise any of those hands on the flop - but weak enough to limp JJ ... I think we are looking at JJ or 88 from MP and a flush from BTN more times than not)

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I cant say I totally agree with this. I have made a hand that is better than what my play of the hand indicates and thus my hand is somewhat hidden. My suspect flop and turn play reeks of someone who made a flush and buttons raise reeks of a big flush and MP slowed down on the turn because I confused the crap out of him [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I think it is mubsy to think we are beat by a better boat here and lets face it, Im not folding the river and if MP has us beat he is capping anyway - I like the cap here as Ill get paid off but a whole lot of hands that we beat. holla.

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I think the turn action gives very big big info ... MP raised the flop with something (and now he just calls, IMHO he does not have a flush here ever - he is not slowplaying, he was betting a solid hand on the flop which he doesn't like so much because of your odd line

also villain was only about 30% vpip ... and he isn't cold calling with a bunch of random suited crap

JJ six times
88 six times

AK, AQ, AT, maybe A9, small chance of Axs lower than this
KQ ...
T9

note: river cap, sure - if you dont' fold, might as well beef up that river AF [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
but I think we are dead more times than the hand combos I've given suggest ... he's rasing that turn with every hand but KQ (how can someone not raise a OESFD)

I think this is a very very very hard fold ... but is the right play (also, I'm not saying I could do it ... I cap the river too, for the same reasons, but think it's a big mistake to waste those 2big bets)