Sunday Mill, JTs in CO M=6

[DDBeast]

It's so rare that you find opponents nitty enough to make raise/folding > pushing. I mean they have to be uber nitty.

[owler]

well, in the other forum, i "advised" that push would probably be the best play, and showed the following thought process:

Assuming the following range , 44+,A3s+,K9s+,A6o+,KJo+,QJs(18.9%), for each player, and, assuming, that only one would call the push, for simplicity (in reality, if, for example, button calls, the blinds will probably also call 6%(2*3% (QQ+, AK range) of the time) i opted to neglect this little chance.

Against the range i previously mention, JTs is 40-60 dog, having this in mind i did some simple EV calculation

13000 = 0.81*15200+0.19*(0.4*27000+0.6*0) <=> 13000 < 14364

numbers arent exact, but are precise enough to have an idea that this play is +cEV= 1364 or so, so its clearly a +cEV play.

But someone asked if we could think like this on a MTT , and if this +cEV enough to make a push.

So i ask the same, how can one measure if a play is +cEV enough to be done or do you guys take every +cEV you can get , even if its little +cEV, u think a play its borderline +cEV, u take the gamble?

[Fiksdal]

You are correct again Betgo. Circumstances have to be extreme here for raise/folding not to be a bad play.

[4CardStraight]

owler ->

The 1400+ chips you win if you win, are worth something less than 1400 of your 13k if you lose. If you lose, you lose your chair. Therefore a strict cEV calculation isn't proper if we are near a payout bubble, or if we are in the money. Of course, our opponents are also much more likely to be playing too tight from optimal, and the amount of money in the antes is getting to be sufficiently large compared to our chipstack size that the cEv calculation is also going to be a significant percentage of our stack in these late game scenarios.

In short, just because something is +cEV doesnt mean its the correct optimal play to maximize +$EV. There are plenty of times where you have a thin edge on a bubble, but should fold, because other people on other tables will assuradly bust you into money, where people will start to play even more tight.

In bubble hands like this though, the effect of our opponents being tighter than they should is really quite large, probably larger than the effect of the new chips being worth less than an equivalant amount from our current stack. In bubble hands, the "gap" of where our opponents will call with better hands than what we open, gets wider still. Harringtons M calculation and "first in vigorish" sections also discuss this. JTs is a mighty fine hand to shove if people have really tight calling ranges and the blinds are worth something greater than 10% of your stack.

This hand I think is ALLIN!!!

[Cornell Fiji]

Owler. I think the calling ranges that you set are way too loose. The hero in this hand is getting called by 88+/AQ+ that is it. There is no way that QJo or K9s are calling this push.

Regardless, being able to average an increase of 10% to your stack is absolutely enormous and can not be passed up at this point.

[owler]

i think so to Fiji, but i made this too loose because i thought a looser oponent would be worst for us,so in a somewhat extreme scenario, we would at least have this +cEV of 1300ish

Toyed around a bit more and worst call range scenario for us would be 88+,ATs+,KJs+,AJo+,KQo or so, but still would be a +cEV play

with a more realistic range of 88+,AQo+, AJs+, the play is even more +cEV

[Soulman]

What Noah said btw, re: ubernits who only push back with TT+,AK. It's exceedingly rare, but I've seen it happen, especially at FTs. Takes a very good read though.

[jmill2511]

[ QUOTE ]
Shove > Fold > Standard Raise > Limp

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Definitely jamming here, which also takes the resteal away from your opponents.