$400nl JJ facing over-bet river shove

[FionnMac]

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I think this hand was played really weird by OP. I think it's important to note that I don't know what the stat numbers represent, so that could change things a bit. Moving on, is it typical to raise so much PF on this table? You bet the flop and are called, what hand are you putting Villain on here? It seems like he's got a Tx or draw to me. I discount any overpairs here as I would think you would get raised with a suited board. TT and 77 maybe but, it is clear from the action PF and Flop you are not to concerned with pot control so if he had a big hand you've given the green light to get crazy.

The turn c/c seems very strange. Why did you do this? I can see c/r the turn but, if I'm Villain and you check I think regardless of what I have, I bet this turn to see where I'm at. If I'm raised then I'll most likely fold but, if you call I'm thinking you have either TP/SP/AK,Q/or some type of drawing hand. Really the point being you're very confident with your hand.

River action, why did you check again? I think by checking you let the Villain know again you don't love your hand but, are willing (possibly) to call a medium size bet as you did on the turn but, would rather have a free showdown. So while I agree this is often a nuts bet, in this situation it seems more of a bluff bet designed to get you to fold a mediocre hand. I also agree this is a tough situation to be in because of the way you played the hand. I lean more towards a call because of this reason.

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1. 4xbb is absolutely standard preflop, no question
2. The stats represent that the opponent is very tight and not particularly aggressive.
3. Don't discount sets as part of his range.
4. There is no way villain has 10-x (unless x is a pair as well), and overpairs are also very unlikely. I think villain either has trips, a full house, or a missd draw.
5. "it is clear from the action PF and Flop you are not to concerned with pot control" - in fact the opposite is the case, check-calling keeps the pot small. I think i have the best hand here but i am not certain so i decide to check-call. Betting is fine too i think.
6. Check-raising the turn is an awful play. He folds out hands we beat like 10-x and we get called by hands we are crushed by, so that is out of the question.

[spexel]

turn is a bet/fold for those who say to bet?

[psuasskicker]

That lady's @$$ is distracting me but yeah, turn should be a bet fold I think.

Here, I just see a bluff way too easily. Hero's line looks a lot like missed overs. Villain looks like he figures he takes a shot with a really weak bet and then can push you off on the river with an overbet. I really think you wind up catching two diamonds or 98 here a lot. T7 counterfeited is also a realistic possibility, value betting the turn small and now shoving the river as a bluff.

Sometimes this is the nuts here, of course. But this board is so sketchy and that turn bet really should be a lot bigger if villain's got a set cause he should be thinking about how to stack you if you've got an overpair and it's not a normally good way to do it to underbet turn overbet river.

I don't hate a fold either, and I do fold this at times here. But I'm not scared of calling here too often and expect to win enough times that a call is marginally EV+.

- C -

[FireStorm]

I like a fold on this river. Guy with these stats on this board will not have a missed draw often enough to compensate for when you call and walk into the goods.

[pogiolithis]

Thought you were playing 1/2 for some reason. My mistake.

It seems odd that you can't put Villain on 10x but, for some strange reason you can put him on 3x. I would think A10, K10, Q10 and maybe J10 are all more likely than 3x.

Doesn't it also seem odd that given Villain is a tight player he would call almost a $30 bet in to roughly a $40 pot with bottom pair?

Also given your bet size on a suited board don't you think if he had a set he would raise you? You bet on the flop says to me you are ready to play a big pot and if I had a set I would raise you. As for pot control you've made a standard PF bet followed by a 3/4 pot bet on the flop - that doesn't sound like pot control. Looks more like you are trying to end the hand asap.

Your check on the turn looks like two things to me, either you are trapping or you can't beat a ten. So when Villain bets and you call it looks like you can't beat a ten but, you're not convinced Villain has a 10 either - not that you're trying to control the pot. I rule out that Villain has a strong hand here because of bet size. With a smooth call on the flop I would look for a big turn bet if he had a strong hand.

With your check on the river OOP I think sets up the AI on the river. If you had a strong hand here I think you would at least value bet a little. The way you played it looks like you don't have a great hand and can't stand a big bet on the river and that is what he has done to you. The I think of this the more I like a call.

[swolfe]

i'm betting this turn 100% of the time..