$400nl JJ facing over-bet river shove

FionnMac · #1 03-05-2007, 01:11 PM

Villain seems pretty nitty over a small sample, 17/6/1, but it is like <100 hands. I was intending on check-calling if makes a reasonable bet, but river is like $290 to call. Thoughts?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($542.50)
CO ($372)
Button ($388)
SB ($378.90)
BB ($475.20)
Hero ($434)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
Hero raises to $16, 1 fold, CO calls $16, 3 folds.

Flop: ($38) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $27, CO calls $27.

Turn: ($92) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $44, Hero calls $44.

River: ($180) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO calls $372 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: $552

FionnMac · #2 03-05-2007, 01:58 PM

bump one time!

Moonshine · #3 03-05-2007, 02:24 PM

weird hand...

seems strange that if he has a monster he would only 1/2 pot turn and make it so difficult to stack you. If you've never seen him make a play i guess i would fold. 56d seems like a likely hand, maybe even A3d. Against someone capable of making a play i would consider calling on that board

epiLog · #4 03-05-2007, 02:29 PM

He got 44, as he told you on the turn.

FionnMac · #5 03-05-2007, 04:09 PM

anyone block the river? or have any thoughts whatsoever on this hand?

PatInTheHat · #6 03-05-2007, 04:19 PM

I bet this turn often. As played I fold, villians with these stats seem to show up with the nuts way more then a bluff.

EUnit24 · #7 03-05-2007, 04:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
anyone block the river? or have any thoughts whatsoever on this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I like a $80 blocking/value bet on river unless you thing he was drawing.

aislephive · #8 03-05-2007, 04:31 PM

Yeah bet the turn. As played eh, really sick spot. I think it's a fold though, he has to be bluffing here very rarely in comparison to how often he has the nuts or close to it.

Better Than U · #9 03-05-2007, 04:57 PM

How can you fold this? Bet the turn and bet/calling the river is soooo standd here. Call the river and don't be a nit.

pogiolithis · #10 03-05-2007, 05:28 PM

I think this hand was played really weird by OP. I think it's important to note that I don't know what the stat numbers represent, so that could change things a bit. Moving on, is it typical to raise so much PF on this table? You bet the flop and are called, what hand are you putting Villain on here? It seems like he's got a Tx or draw to me. I discount any overpairs here as I would think you would get raised with a suited board. TT and 77 maybe but, it is clear from the action PF and Flop you are not to concerned with pot control so if he had a big hand you've given the green light to get crazy.

The turn c/c seems very strange. Why did you do this? I can see c/r the turn but, if I'm Villain and you check I think regardless of what I have, I bet this turn to see where I'm at. If I'm raised then I'll most likely fold but, if you call I'm thinking you have either TP/SP/AK,Q/or some type of drawing hand. Really the point being you're very confident with your hand.

River action, why did you check again? I think by checking you let the Villain know again you don't love your hand but, are willing (possibly) to call a medium size bet as you did on the turn but, would rather have a free showdown. So while I agree this is often a nuts bet, in this situation it seems more of a bluff bet designed to get you to fold a mediocre hand. I also agree this is a tough situation to be in because of the way you played the hand. I lean more towards a call because of this reason.