AJs River line - Page 5

F Paulsson · #41 03-05-2007, 02:09 PM

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Bet/calling will be > 0 EV.

In terms of EV B/F > B/C >> Ch. I'm quite sure of this.

[/ QUOTE ]
Intuitively, I feel (or at least felt, now I'm going to have to figure this out) that b/f and b/c must have mutually exclusive profitability. I.e., if one of them is > 0 EV, the other one cannot be.

I have no idea where I got that from, and I just finished cooking dinner and am really hungry - it'll have to wait. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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BTW, I'm only B/F'ing if I am really paying attention and on my game. I would most likely bet call here, because I am simply not that good of player.

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I check precisely for the same reason, but I'm passive generally speaking. My total AF is only 1.7. :/

milesdyson · #42 03-05-2007, 02:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Intuitively, I feel (or at least felt, now I'm going to have to figure this out) that b/f and b/c must have mutually exclusive profitability. I.e., if one of them is > 0 EV, the other one cannot be.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think I've ever heard someone say this. It isn't true.

Basically saying that b/f > b/c > 0 is saying this:

"You will miss more value by not value betting than you will lose when you make a -EV call of a river check raise. So, even if you are incapable of making the fold, you should still bet."

Guy McSucker · #43 03-05-2007, 02:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Intuitively, I feel (or at least felt, now I'm going to have to figure this out) that b/f and b/c must have mutually exclusive profitability. I.e., if one of them is > 0 EV, the other one cannot be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pure theory:

That's not the case because the two lines overlap in those situations where the opponent calls or folds.

Guy.

MarkD · #44 03-05-2007, 02:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet/calling will be > 0 EV.

In terms of EV B/F > B/C >> Ch. I'm quite sure of this.

[/ QUOTE ]
Intuitively, I feel (or at least felt, now I'm going to have to figure this out) that b/f and b/c must have mutually exclusive profitability. I.e., if one of them is > 0 EV, the other one cannot be.

I have no idea where I got that from, and I just finished cooking dinner and am really hungry - it'll have to wait. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, I'm only B/F'ing if I am really paying attention and on my game. I would most likely bet call here, because I am simply not that good of player.

[/ QUOTE ]
I check precisely for the same reason, but I'm passive generally speaking. My total AF is only 1.7. :/

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Ok, but what you may be missing here is that most of the time you are going to bet and he is going to call and you are going to win. This is the reason why bet/calling > 0 EV. It's the bet part that generates the profit.

If you bet, and he calls 90% of the time and C/R's 10% of the time and you always call:
0.9 - 2*0.1 = +0.7

If you bet, and he calls 80% of the time and C/R's 20% of the time and you always call:
0.8 - 2*0.2 = +0.4

etc. You have way the best of it here and therefor you should be betting without even thinking about what to do if dummy raises because most of the time he won't be raising.

F Paulsson · #45 03-05-2007, 02:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Pure theory:

That's not the case because the two lines overlap in those situations where the opponent calls or folds.

Guy.

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You're right. Having gotten some food into my system, this is fairly obvious. Thanks. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Edit: And thanks to Mark, too.

danzasmack · #46 03-05-2007, 02:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Intuitively, I feel (or at least felt, now I'm going to have to figure this out) that b/f and b/c must have mutually exclusive profitability. I.e., if one of them is > 0 EV, the other one cannot be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pure theory:

That's not the case because the two lines overlap in those situations where the opponent calls or folds.

Guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

what he said is wrong, but is this reason really sufficient? he is suggesting that "betting with the intention of calling" and "betting with the intention of folding" are 2 separate events. This could obviously be true in some cases with a specific bluff frequency, decreased pot size, etc.

but in this case no way is one of them -EV.

F Paulsson · #47 03-05-2007, 02:31 PM

Right. There are probably situations where what I said CAN be true - but what I mistakenly thought was that it was ALWAYS true. This is clearly not the case.

Sorry for the derail.

cdlarmore · #48 03-06-2007, 01:28 PM

Nice post, I am in support as a high stakes short handed player...
People who automatically advise folding to the raise above should reconsider a call action getting 1:12 at that point...
cdl

Apanage · #49 03-06-2007, 01:47 PM

I know that this guy doesn´t know that also Danza which I also state in the latter part of my post.
But I don´t like bet/folding rivers in big pots because I constantly see randomized retardness on every streets including rivers.
For me the guy is unknown and I´m not folding.
Period. People don´t agree with me and I have to live with that.
I table select carefully and maybe that´s why I often stumble into these situations. I´m not the only one that table select carefully though so I often have one more TAG at the table.
I really don´t want him to get any ideas.I know for sure that when I´ve seen someone bet/folding rivers more than three times I´m happy. Because I know that I´ve found a value bettor that can be exploited.
I certainly think that it is worth to bet/fold rivers anyway but I want to be damn sure that I have a good read before I give up 11BB.

Apanage · #50 03-06-2007, 04:54 PM

A hand from todays play.
Villain 48/8/0.7 over 150 hands. Have been playing very passively during those hands

PokerRoom 3/6 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (5.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

There are differences but also similarities to this thread´s original hand.
Villain flips over Ts6d