Get Your Calculators Out! - Page 5

emerson · #41 03-02-2007, 12:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I consider myself a lot looser than most of the forum regulars here. I fold PF. Three gap suited for 5:1 in awful absolute position, bad relative position, is just too terrible.

I think that UTGs speech before betting pretty much telegraphs his hand.

edit: Whoops calculator attack shows better pot odds. I still hate this hand and the overall situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG raised, 4 callers. That's already 10 small bets, plus the BB makes 11. Then the SB has 2/3 of a bet already in. That's 11.667 bets. It costs the SB 1.333 bets to call. I get about 8.75 to 1, lots better than 5 to 1.

emerson · #42 03-02-2007, 12:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm folding the flop the first time around. If I'm calling PF with 84s, I want to flop either a double gutter or a flush draw. Having nothing but a gutshot and a backdoor 8-high flush draw isn't enough for me to call 2 cold. You're getting about 20:2 and not even close to closing the action.

[/ QUOTE ]

With this many players the implied odds are pretty damn good. I think you easily have the odds to call the flop with the gut shot alone. I think you easily get paid off better than 11 to 1.

emerson · #43 03-02-2007, 12:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Close to a turn value checkraise no?

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

Close but no cigar. 5:1 against the flush, you may get 4:1 if all call, and it is not a nut flush. Someone else could be drawing to a bigger flush. If it were a nut flush draw combined with the gut shot I think you can raise. That would be 12 outs vs 34 non-outs. Good bet with 4 callers.

private joker · #44 03-02-2007, 01:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]

With this many players the implied odds are pretty damn good. I think you easily have the odds to call the flop with the gut shot alone. I think you easily get paid off better than 11 to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

11:1 is being generous. One of our outs is a club that likely fills a flush. There are also multiple redraws against us. I'd discount our outs plenty. 4 for the gutshot + 1 for the backdoor flush draw would be 5, but I'm discounting it to about 3 at best.

Gabe · #45 03-02-2007, 03:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
"UTG raises, four people cold call, I call in the SB(2/3 structure) with 84s"

bad

[/ QUOTE ]

it's fine

Clarkmeister · #46 03-02-2007, 04:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
"UTG raises, four people cold call, I call in the SB(2/3 structure) with 84s"

bad

[/ QUOTE ]

You prefer a 3-bet?

CardSharpCook · #47 03-02-2007, 04:39 AM

you know Mike wants us all to believe he is a supreme PF nit so he can take advantage of us when we play the same game.

DeathDonkey · #48 03-02-2007, 05:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Close to a turn value checkraise no?

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

Close but no cigar. 5:1 against the flush, you may get 4:1 if all call, and it is not a nut flush. Someone else could be drawing to a bigger flush. If it were a nut flush draw combined with the gut shot I think you can raise. That would be 12 outs vs 34 non-outs. Good bet with 4 callers.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are also open ended.

-DeathDonkey

mike l. · #49 03-02-2007, 07:25 AM

dont lie. you fold that all day long all year long.

Abbaddabba · #50 03-02-2007, 08:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
UTG raises, four people cold call

[/ QUOTE ]

After accounting for reverse implied odds, inverted pot suggesters and plugging it it all into the quadratic formula, it's clear that the optimal move is to fold and go to the rest room to clean yourself up. Because im jizzing and/or soiling myself if i sit at a 60/120 game and see that in front of me.

The difference between calling and folding both preflop and the flop seem so trivial.