Blind steal situation

[MitchL]

The reasons were pretty well stated by Justin before, but I think my read of villain makes it a more subjective decision. I think the likelihood that he bets this river looking for a call by a worse hand from me is very low. He would almost always check and call this river content to showdown his 7 or pp or catch me bluffing. He is obviously always betting an Ace or a 9, 1 of which we chop the other I lose. So to me just calling seems clear. Its of course possible for him to have a worse hand and still pay off a raise, but I think based on my read that the likelihood that both of those conditions could be met is low enough to make this a call.

[YourAce]

What could he have? There are few hands to beat you, either the case 9, or pocket A's. If he has the 7, you take the pot, if he has A, then you split the pot. I would raise the river, if he reraises, I call. If he has the 9 or pocket A's, then he played the hand perfectly. BUT, you said he is running bad and I think he is just trying to pick up a pot.

[vmacosta]

I think always checking behind here gives away your hand. I mean, what other hands are you doing this with? Probably only big pocket pairs and As. As long as this guy's range is sufficiently wide, you are in a profitable situation here. If this guy c/r bluffs too little, you can't lose. If he c/r bluffs too much you can't lose. If he doesn't pair up he would be retarded to try and bluff the river after we've made our hand so transparent. So I don't really see why we are checking the turn as long as we feel we are ahead most of the time here. If you think he might have a gutshot and will likely stick in some action if he pairs, remember he will also stick in action if he makes a straight and then he'll also collect the rest of the pot.

If you think he would have c/r'ed or donked the flop with most str8 draws and bottom pairs, then you are starting to make a more legitimate point. Also if he's the type to almost never 3-bet from the BB in a blind steal preflop then you are also helping your stance. But I haven't heard that yet.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
Justin, why wouldn't you raise the river?

I can't think of a good reason not to raise. Sure we may be chopping a lot, but he could be "honestly" value betting a pair here, so our boat is the best one in all those cases. Putting him on quads is laughable, so I think this is a super easy raise. Then chop it or take the whole pot when he folds or pays you off with a worse boat.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the fact that you chop so much and the fact that you think quads is pretty laughable is a pretty substantial mistake.

[MitchL]

So he bet, I called and he proudly tabled: j [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I probably gave this away when I said that another player "gave me flack," and it might have influenced the responses, but I will try not to give it away so much next time.

[cdlarmore]

I know you posted results and this thread is basically closed, but dont be afraid to fire a a bet on the turn, raise the river, reasons as mentioned by previous posters plys what if this guy had 68 and ur giving him freebies on his draw??? We cant be that scared of a board pairing, and the river shows me my hand is good basically, I am willing to loose another bet or 2 in the odd chance he has some ridiculous hand.

[MitchL]

Trust me I am not afraid to fire in these situations. My main reasoning for playing the hand the way I did combines several factors which led me to believe that I could induce a bad river call if he checked to me and also avoid getting
crd in a spot where I cant fold.

[jfk]

I'm late to the show, but I agree with checking behind on the turn. The river raise should be considered automatic.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm late to the show, but I agree with checking behind on the turn. The river raise should be considered automatic.

[/ QUOTE ]

Think about what this river raise accomplishes and then you'll understand why calling here should be automatic.

[jfk]

[ QUOTE ]
Think about what this river raise accomplishes and then you'll understand why calling here should be automatic.

[/ QUOTE ]

The way I see it a river raise accomplishes:

1) a reinforced sense of frustration on the part of the BB who the OP says is "running bad", if the BB shows down an ace, a hand with which the BB lead all the way and split.

2) a somewhat probable pay off by the BB with a smaller pair.

or

3) a occasional loss of an additional 2BB when the BB shows quads.

I believe the times the BB raises and gets paid off by the BB's smaller pair outnumber the instances the OP is shown quads enough to make a river raise quite profitable. If three bet here by the BB a simple call is in order. There's no reason to keep piling up bets.

Despite rereading the thread a couple times, I'm still struggling to see why a river raise is in question. If I'm missing something more basic please feel welcome to spell it out for me in very simple terms.