Blind steal situation

[MitchL]

I caught a bit of flack from a decent player for the way I played this hand and since it has become a standard line of mine in these situations I thought I would post it here to make sure its not leaky.

BB here is running bad and is loose generally. He does some weird stuff against bad players but plays pretty honestly against me. He defends very liberally especially when he is running bad.

15/30 Cbury

I open otb w/ A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] bb calls.

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks, I bet he calls.

Turn: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB checks, I check.

River: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB bets I call.

Any value in a river raise given villains description? I think I have been playing poorly as of late though I havent been running bad. Any help would be appreciated.

[SuperPokerJedi]

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Any value in a river raise


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Always! nh [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Justin A]

Seems fine.

If the board hadn't paired on the turn I'd pretty much always bet though.

[private joker]

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Seems fine.


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Justin, why wouldn't you raise the river?

I can't think of a good reason not to raise. Sure we may be chopping a lot, but he could be "honestly" value betting a pair here, so our boat is the best one in all those cases. Putting him on quads is laughable, so I think this is a super easy raise. Then chop it or take the whole pot when he folds or pays you off with a worse boat.

[Justin A]

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[ QUOTE ]
Seems fine.


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Justin, why wouldn't you raise the river?

I can't think of a good reason not to raise. Sure we may be chopping a lot, but he could be "honestly" value betting a pair here, so our boat is the best one in all those cases. Putting him on quads is laughable, so I think this is a super easy raise. Then chop it or take the whole pot when he folds or pays you off with a worse boat.

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We can put him on a chopping hand, quads, a 7, a bluff, or maybe a pocket pair. The quads 3bets us and we have to call. There's no point in raising the chopping hands, the bluffs don't call, and I have to imagine the 7's and pocket pairs rarely call also. Not to mention the 7's and pocket pairs probably aren't betting the river anyways.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
Justin, why wouldn't you raise the river?

I can't think of a good reason not to raise. Sure we may be chopping a lot, but he could be "honestly" value betting a pair here, so our boat is the best one in all those cases. Putting him on quads is laughable, so I think this is a super easy raise. Then chop it or take the whole pot when he folds or pays you off with a worse boat.

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i think the fact that you chop so much and the fact that you think quads is pretty laughable is a pretty substantial mistake.

[PokerBob]

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Seems fine.

If the board hadn't paired on the turn I'd pretty much always bet though.

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what justin said.

[vmacosta]

I think you should bet the turn. There are just too few ways for you to be beat here and too many ways for him to have 8+ outs here.

And with the A out there, plus your read that he's straightforward against you, I really don't see him bluff raising enough to scare you. Even if you're a SD-monkey like me and decide you have to call down, he prob won't be raising you often enough to make this line unprofitable.

After you checked the turn, the river call is pretty standard and I need a read that the guy is on tilt before I'm raising.

Edit: just reread the hand and now I'm less sure about the turn bet but still think its prob right.

[PokerBob]

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I think you should bet the turn. There are just too few ways for you to be beat here and too many ways for him to have 8+ outs here.

And with the A out there, plus your read that he's straightforward against you, I really don't see him bluff raising enough to scare you. Even if you're a SD-monkey like me and decide you have to call down, he prob won't be raising you often enough to make this line unprofitable.

After you checked the turn, the river call is pretty standard and I need a read that the guy is on tilt before I'm raising.

Edit: just reread the hand and now I'm less sure about the turn bet but still think its prob right.

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I completely disagree here. The flop is A97r. What can he call with? an ace. a 9. a 7. T8. Maybe JT or some other gutshot hands. If he has something like 87, the turn just crippled him. If not, the turn card counterfeits our kicker and quite possibly hit his hand. If it didn't, then we are giving him a free card in a super tiny pot to a guy who probably doesn't have anything. If that free card ends up costing us the pot, it is not a large mistake. 8 outs on the turn is likely too generous of an estimate. If he makes running clubs, good for him.

[vmacosta]

I think always checking behind here gives away your hand. I mean, what other hands are you doing this with? Probably only big pocket pairs and As. As long as this guy's range is sufficiently wide, you are in a profitable situation here. If this guy c/r bluffs too little, you can't lose. If he c/r bluffs too much you can't lose. If he doesn't pair up he would be retarded to try and bluff the river after we've made our hand so transparent. So I don't really see why we are checking the turn as long as we feel we are ahead most of the time here. If you think he might have a gutshot and will likely stick in some action if he pairs, remember he will also stick in action if he makes a straight and then he'll also collect the rest of the pot.

If you think he would have c/r'ed or donked the flop with most str8 draws and bottom pairs, then you are starting to make a more legitimate point. Also if he's the type to almost never 3-bet from the BB in a blind steal preflop then you are also helping your stance. But I haven't heard that yet.