"You mean bluffing?" "So you've heard the term?"

[Gib]

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I don't mind it if you think villain will not b/f here.

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Huh?

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Basically if your screwplay is for value you don't want villain to fold a worse hand that he was planning on calling down with.

Otherwise I would fire the turn again.

[BigBadBabar]

right if he's firing again on the river with a worse hand if we just call the turn then we get more monies.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

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I don't mind it if you think villain will not b/f here.

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Huh?

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Basically if your screwplay is for value you don't want villain to fold a worse hand that he was planning on calling down with.

Otherwise I would fire the turn again.

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at this point im pretty sure buying the equity and getting him to fold a 6 outer is better than getting the value from the raise.

[Gib]

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I don't mind it if you think villain will not b/f here.

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Huh?

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Basically if your screwplay is for value you don't want villain to fold a worse hand that he was planning on calling down with.

Otherwise I would fire the turn again.

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at this point im pretty sure buying the equity and getting him to fold a 6 outer is better than getting the value from the raise.

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Are you saying we should c/r to protect here? My only problem with this is if we screwplay the turn villain will prolly have the right odds to call our raise with 6 outs.

That's why I said if we screwplay we should do it for value, if we want to protect we should bet.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

we are doing it for value.

we still want him to fold.

we have roughly 80% equity here vs his range, lets call it 80% for simplicity.

by making the raise,

if he calls, lets make the assumption that regardless of what card comes on the river exactly 1 more bet goes in from each player (probably not too bad) this means that (when he calls):

80% of the time we win the pot, 20% of the time we lose it.

therefore our ev when he calls is
.8 * (5(the original pot) + 2(the extra 2 bets from him) = 7) + .3 * (0 (we win nothing) - 3(the extra bets we put in)) = 4.6BB

when he folds, we pick up the pot, which is currently 5BB

therefore our ev when he folds is 5BB.


feel free to check my math there

[NigelSmith]

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feel free to check my math there

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Can I question your assumption first?

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we have roughly 80% equity here vs his range, lets call it 80% for simplicity.

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Where do you get this from? Are you assuming a completely random hand? I'm not questioning the value of him folding, but whether this is a value bet without that.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

i was using that figure for simplicity to demonstrate how sometimes we can make a value bet and still want our opponent to fold.

im pretty sure whatever range you give him we are over 50%