Venetian $330 Tough river decision.

[Fiksdal]

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Cornell

Villain is a thinking player, and it is HU. What do you think he will think of our hand if we lead into the preflop raiser here?

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We have position and he checked to us and we have a lot of chips. I hope our range for betting is a lot wider than a flopped full house. I'd bet here with almost anything, certainly going to bet monsters as well.

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I misread OP.

OOP I would check this flop. When he checks to us, this is an easy bet.

[Lord_Strife]

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Come on lads. you flop a full house. Your initial reaction is to check right.

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Of course, but does that make it correct? Could be a leak and thats why we analyze

[Lord_Strife]

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I think that this is a pretty elementary fold on the river. But I would have busted on this hand because I would have had all of the money in by the turn.

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My thoughts exactly, well said.

[GOONERCAM]

I am a little torn over this one. First of all, which no1 has picked up on is i find it a little strange that the chip leader checks this flop after having raised. I would expect him to lead out fairly regularly. However, i think u still have to bet this flop. The reason for this is if you flop a monster most ppl EXPECT you to check. Therefore, leading out adds deception. On the river I think you make ur decision on gut feeling and what you know about this guy. It looks like he may have you but sometimes ur destined to go broke. Hope this helps.

[TC Franks]

Maybe I'm conservative but I wouldn't have bet the river after that ace came off. Too many better hands at that point that the villian could have or could represent.

Just my two cents.

I have not yet read how this turns out, hope it went your way. Thanks for a very interesting hand.

[Cornell Fiji]

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Come on lads. you flop a full house. Your initial reaction is to check right.

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Of course, but does that make it correct? Could be a leak and thats why we analyze

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Yes, you are both wrong, you must bet this flop. That is why we analyze.



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Maybe I'm conservative but I wouldn't have bet the river after that ace came off. Too many better hands at that point that the villian could have or could represent.

Just my two cents.

I have not yet read how this turns out, hope it went your way. Thanks for a very interesting hand.

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You have to value bet the river. Villain could have KQ/QJ(less likely) or he could have had A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] that feels obligated to call the river. Yes, we are behind a much greater part of his range once the river card comes down but that does not mean that we should be passing up value here. He is not check-shoving on us with a worse hands because he does not expect us to be value betting with JJ and he does not expect us to lay down KQ.

Upon further review however I would have bet 3,500 on the river. Your 2,000 chip bet is begging for a check raise a little bit and anything that the villain is going to call for 2,000 he is going to also call for 3,500

[TC Franks]

Actually, I went back and looked at it. I thought the flop was three queens, that changes everything.

When you said villian could have AK, I was thinking--Yes. So I reviewed and saw that my eyes played tricks on me.

Thanks for not being brutal with me, I probably deserved it there but it was an honest mistake.

too funny.

[TC Franks]

So now that I understand the full magnitude of the problem, I think I call this bet. Of course it's a lot easier to say here at work than in the pressure of a tourney but I'm hoping he has A-x (please not AQ of course.) Or KQ/JQ, something like that. 7-7, I guess there's a slim chance of that as well.

One other factor here is if you feel like you're playing well and you feel like you don't have a good read on this situation, you could lay the cards down. The pot isn't all that big just yet. All that said, I think I'm going to make this call.

Hope it worked out.

(Even now when I look at this posting, it at first looks like the flop is QQQ. Must be an illusion or I need new contacts.)

[Javanewt]

I'm in the minority, but I think AQ is a possibility.

I do wonder, though, why the villain checked the river if he had a monster? If he did have a monster, he must have thought hero LOVED his hand and would definitely bet.

[kniper]

FLOP: bet the [censored] flop. It gives you a great opportunity to stack him if he holds a hand like AQ, disguises your hand (villains often dont give you credit for a Q here if you bet), helps build a big pot with a monster hand against another big stack. If you bet this flop, better chance you have of getting $$$ in on the turn.

TURN: standard

RIVER: not value-betting this is soooo weak I can't even express myself. Sure, the A isn't a great card, but there are plenty of other holdings here that will pay you off. But given that he has now pushed, I think you can fold. W/o a read that villain is a complete donk being able to do this with KQ QJ kind of hands, AA AQ is now most likely (maybe even 77). Its a tough fold, and in smaller buy-ins i would instacall. But here I think you can fold.