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#23
02-06-2007, 03:31 PM
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Re: Semi-deep AA against good villain
[ QUOTE ]
The preflop call is questionable. I can't believe the flop call though. Unless hero has been reraising light a lot, villian has to know he is behind here, drawing to 5 outs, and is calling a 36BB bet. That's spew and a total suckout. [/ QUOTE ] Guess I can't argue with that. 
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#24
02-06-2007, 04:27 PM
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Re: Semi-deep AA against good villain
EMC. Preflop and on the flop, your betsizes were large enough to deny him the implied odds he needs to stack you with T9s. After he calls the flop, I'd put him on AK, KQ, 99, 55, QQ, JJ or KK. He could also be floating QJ or his actual hand, but that's rare. I think you're ahead of his range on the turn and my goal would be to get stacks in however possible. AK and all the hands that beat you will probably get it in no matter how you play so those don't matter much IMO. I'd play for two purposes (1) extract from Kx,QQ, and JJ and (2) protect against QJ, QT, or JT drawing to the gutshot. With $56 in the turn pot and about $50 left to be won from you stack, all you have to bet on the turn to price out a gutshot is about $15. KQ will likely call this bet, too. QQ and JJ may call, too because the odds are great. Thus, I'd bet $15 on the turn, and get all the money in at the next opportunity.
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#25
02-06-2007, 04:55 PM
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Re: Semi-deep AA against good villain
[ QUOTE ]
We're checking the turn because we're 150BB deep with a one-pair hand. I think villain bets 9x, Tx, and Kx on the end, maybe even QQ and JJ if he's as agro as EMC's read suggests. I want to minimize my exposure here and don't want to get reraised on the river. We miss some value when he checks through, but most of the hands he checks through won't be called if we value bet. 9x, KK, 55 are reraising us. I haven't done all the maths, but my gut says check/call up to a PSB here. [/ QUOTE ] We have 2 pair first off. Secondly, statements like these don't mean much when it is 3 bet pre flop.
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#26
02-06-2007, 04:58 PM
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Re: Semi-deep AA against good villain
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] We're checking the turn because we're 150BB deep with a one-pair hand. [/ QUOTE ] We just turned to two-pair and we shoud bet it. [/ QUOTE ] Technically we have two pair, but the 9 definitely hurts our hand more than helps it (it's pretty damn unlikely he had K-5). Once in a while you'll catch a guy here with 9-T or 9-8 (he called the reraise preflop in position deep-stacked, so I wouldn't say that's out of his range at all). I don't think we should be afraid of it either. I don't know, it's pretty hard not to get stacked in a re-raised pot with AA on a board like this. However, if he had trips or a boat, then I don't think he would check behind on the turn. He may very well be in there with a hand like TT. I think a value bet of half the pot, $25-$30, would work on the river. That's what I'd do. [/ QUOTE ] you seem pretty confused on basic poker concepts.
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#27
02-06-2007, 05:07 PM
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Re: Semi-deep AA against good villain
[ QUOTE ]
you seem pretty confused on basic poker concepts. [/ QUOTE ] I'm glad you pointed that out. I'm here to learn, so please tell me what exactly I'm thinking through wrong. I'm not being sarcastic, I really want to know.
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#28
02-06-2007, 05:35 PM
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Re: Semi-deep AA against good villain
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] you seem pretty confused on basic poker concepts. [/ QUOTE ] I'm glad you pointed that out. I'm here to learn, so please tell me what exactly I'm thinking through wrong. I'm not being sarcastic, I really want to know. [/ QUOTE ] In your other post you said T9 was in his range. I am going to assume the villian is somewhat decent, if he is somewhat decent there is no way he is calling a 4.5x raise ($2-->$9) with any suited connector. In fact calling with a pocket pair here for set value is debatable (see dbitels 3-8 rule). So basically the 9 doesn't change much at all and will be a good card for us against the majority of villian's range. We NEED to bet turn here, we have a very strong hand and checking allows a couple of things that we don't want. 1) It opens up the opportunity to bluff on a scared card. Any scare cards, K, 10, J, Q. These are all bad cards for us. 2) If we check turn, we are giving up a lot of real equity. (This is a $50nl game and the pot is already $20 on the flop.. get the rest of the money in ASAP.
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#29
02-06-2007, 06:19 PM
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Re: Semi-deep AA against good villain
humm....wonder if this is spew....
Villian risks $18 to win $56.50. 5outsx4=20% (you gave two free cards here, on a huge blank turn). so if 20% of the time he wins $56.50+60=116.50 .20*116.5=$23.30 .80*$18=-$14.40 wonder how big a bet you can call on the river... .2*(56.6+x)=.8*18 x=15.40 my math must be off....must need the $10 in preflop to work out... so 23.30 and .8*(18+10)=-22.40 So still +EV, since you put your whole stack in.... I don't promise my math is right though...
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#30
02-06-2007, 07:33 PM
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Re: Semi-deep AA against good villain
On the flop the villain stands to win Hero's whole preflop stack plus the blinds plus the bet the villain put in preflop.
That amount would be $78.70 + $3 + $9 = $90.70. I think his EV for absolute maximum implied odds (free river and gets paid on river) would be EV = .2*$90.70 + .8*-$18 = $3.6
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