Long downswing just have some questions for you guys

[ottsville]

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I have just been really dead on my draws for a long time. Of my last 50 flopped flush draws I have hit 7 of them. I do not have the calculations for straight draws though, they are not much better if at all.

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Sounds like you believe that it is only variance. In that case, just keep playing your regular game. Check out BBV if you want to see how bad a downturn can be...

[winkydinky85]

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I remember asking you how many tables you were planning on playing in that first post of yours and going back and forth with you, trying to warn you against your plan. The fact that your on a large downswing right now leads me to believe you should restrict the amount of tables you are playing.

How many tables are you playing currently? What is your VP$IP for the last.. 2 weeks of your play?

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My VPIP has been at about 17% in the last two weeks. I have only played 9 tables once in the last couple of weeks and suprisingly that was my big winning session I have had over the last month (a whole 25BB lol).

[Joga Bonito]

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My VPIP has been at about 17% in the last two weeks. I have only played 9 tables once

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What is the average number of tables you're playing though?
I think people that play 17% of there hands do so for one reason, they're playing to many tables and giving up 4% of the hands that are profitable.

So, how many tables do you normally play during a session? 6 or more?

[EGO]

Downswings do happen over long stretches, but I've found that most of it is in my own play.

Nine tables is too many to play at any period during a big downswing, especially if your downswing is affecting you emotionally. Poker profit comes from the quality of your decisions based on the quality of those around you. With each table you add, you narrow the margin between your estimate of the edge you have in a game and that of your opponents. Here's a chart that I'm pulling out of my ass:

Assuming 60 hands per hour per table on average.

1 table: 2.5BB/100, = 1.5BB/table hour
2 tables: 2.0BB/100, = 2.4BB/table hour
3 tables: 1.5BB/100, = 2.7BB/table hour
4 tables: 1.0BB/100, = 2.4BB/table hour
5 tables: 0.75BB/100 = 2.25BB/table hour
6 tables: 0.5BB/100 = 1.8BB/table hour
7 tables: 0.25BB/100 = 1.05BB/table hour
8 tables: 0.20BB/100 = 0.96BB/table hour
9 tables: 0.10BB/100 = 0.54BB/table hour

The closer your winrate approaches zero, the more variance you'll have.

If you are playing multiple tables, it has to be with the focus on increasing your hourly rate. I pulled these numbers out of my rear end, but it shows what I'm thinking of. You can pack in quite a few hands playing eight tables for a few hours a day. You might have a better hourly rate by playing less.

Someone mentioned a thread of yours that had a target $$ amount with a certain number of hands. Believe me, this isn't the way to plan. I remember sitting up late one night a couple of years ago with a calculator, and figuring that I'd be playing 5/10 in five months, easy. The math was all there. It's taken me this long to realize that I shouldn't even care how much I win or lose, only that I play my absolute best every time I sit down at the table. While it's good to have goals, I think this is the best goal. A $$ amount in X hands/months is results oriented.

It really takes the pressure off not to have to worry about winning. Sure, downswings are still tough. I get tilty, and probably always will. I just sit out and go do something else for awhile, come back later with a calculator and a notebook and review my hands from an EV standpoint. It turns out that most of my downswings are caused by my own bad decisions.

I've found a couple of books that help in this regard. Both of Larry Phillip's books, Zen and the Art of Poker and The Tao of Poker have helped me search for a calm inner place where I can basically ignore all the emotional stuff that goes on at the table.

I haven't found it yet. I truly hope you do.

[winkydinky85]

Normally I play about 6. My VPIP is much higher at other sites (Bodog especially), at Bodog it is in the low twenties. The tables at UB are much more aggressive than the tables at Bodog, Pokerstars, or Full Tilt. So facing a raise every pot makes me have to lay down a lot more hands preflop. My winrate at Bodog, Pokerstars and Full Tilt put together after about 45k hands is 1.5BB/100 hands. At UB after 30K hands it is at about -.8BB/100 hands.

I play the same when I play six tables as I do one. I can easily handle 6-9 tables resized at UB. But if there are less tables than that, that is fine I will just play whats available if some of the fish are there. I do not have to play six tables I just prefer to do it if possible. But I really do not want to play less than 3.

[Joga Bonito]

Ego that is a great post.

I told you in the original post with your plan to make X$/X#hands that it was a recipe for disaster. The reason I said that is because I tried it as well. Ego tried it the same way I did... It's the wrong approach.

Poker is a game of making fewer mistakes than the people you sit with. When you play 9 tables, you will make small mistakes all over the place. It will kill your b/r.

The book Zen of Poker really helped me too, I read it really early in my poker life, It helped a lot.

Ego and I have both been at the phase you are at in your poker career. I'm not saying we are better than you at poker! All I am saying is that you're at a stage that we've both been at, we both regret the fact that it took us so long to get over that part of our learning process (I am assuming that).

Put the plan to make that money aside, play your next 5k hands with a promise to only play 4 tables at a time. When you're on a downswing you make so many mistakes you don't think about that it's nearly impossible to play more than 4 tables and hope to make a profit. Sure you'll run good sometimes and eek out a winning session.. but everyone can win a few hands in poker.

If you continue mutli-tabling to the extent you are right now you will lose your hard earned b/r.

[winkydinky85]

Well my bad fortune continues. I took a week off, looked at hand histories and all that good stuff and again saw progress and improvement in my play. But the bad beats and missed draws is rediculous. My downswing has hit 400 BB and the guys at BBV told me that is not that uncommon. I had a 35BB positive session then another -40 happened two more times.

I did not play a hand from from the end of last week until today and sat down feeling fresh and all that good stuff. Played my A-game again except for one loose call on the river. That is just playing at most 3 tables at a time (mostly because that is all that was available). I played 700 more hands today and am down another 80BB.

I really hate to give into superstition of just leaving a pokersite because one is running bad because it is not the pokersite but this has just been amazingly bad. I am down $800 over my last 30K hands and have had no bigger winning sessions than 50BB. I look at all these peoples charts and see multiple 100+BB winning days or 300+BB streaks over less than 5000 hands but I have not had a 100BB+ winning day in over 4 months.

This one is a bit of a vent post honestly, the other ones were not. I just do not understand how it is possible to run this unlucky for this long. I am running normal at the other sites, you know average a nice $2 per table hour with the occassional small up or down swing. But I just do not know what to do. I really do not want to stop playing at UB because like I said I think it is childish to leave a site because you are running bad.

I mean has anyone here bad a downswing that lasted longer than mine has or been bigger. I had a total of 12 straights and flush draws (only counting open ended straight draws)and I hit one of them. Then of course I got rivered by a full house and lost a 20BB pot.

Sorry guys maybe I am the unlucky one but I just do not know what to do anymore. I play so much better than the other players around me, they literally throw there money at me and build a huge pot, only to have it taken from me by some stupid miracle card. I know I want players to make stupid decisions and throw their money at me but how can I possibly run this bad for this long?

[nerdking]

drop down a level, or however many levels it takes to start winning again.

[OrigamiSensei]

Per Aussie's suggestion above: Wink, not that I presume to be a great or even a good player or a top-flight reviewer but if you want to throw 150 or 200 hands my way I'd be happy to have a look for you. PM me if interested. I'm in Europe right now and it may take me a few days to get through them but I'll be happy to help if I can.

[martybonus]

winky,

[shameless self promotion] read this: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...e=2#Post9100863
[/SSP]

downswings are good because they stop rewarding your bad play.

Simply put: it's not just the cards. It's at least partly you.

You can choose to ignore this fact and keep losing money or you can open your ears/eyes, go back to basics, and fix your game.

Let me point something out to you, in case it's not clear. This post of yours is basically as follows:
you: woe is me, i'm losing money badly, what can I do?
us: you can do X, Y, Z
you: no, I don't want to (or don't need to, etc) do X,Y,Z.
us: .... okay. well, don't be surprised if you keep losing money.

I hate to be rude, but you need to stop feeling sorry for yourself, stop acting like a stubborn idiot (i'm not saying you are one, just that this specific behaviour pattern is), and you need to start listening to the advice these guys are giving you. If not me, then people lik OZ, fretloo, and all the other experienced players who've been so kind as to give you free, good advice.