Long downswing just have some questions for you guys

winkydinky85 · #1 01-31-2007, 08:00 PM

I understand that this may belong in BBV but you guys play at the same level that I do and so I think you will be able to help me more. I am currently going through a 300 BB downswing over the last month (over about 16000 hands), and have had one winning session of 25BB and two of 15 BB. The rest of either been very marginal winners and very big losers.

I have gone through fast downswings before and have heard of bad downswings that last 100000 hands but I am not adjusted to this. Luckily thanks to bonus plus rakeback my bankroll is up slightly. This is not a vent post but I am wondering what is the biggest and longest downswing you guys have gone through and how fast you made it back to where you were. Also post any funny stats or experiences during your downswings. Thanks guys.

ottsville · #2 01-31-2007, 08:11 PM

How large of a sample did you have before to determine that you are now in a downswing? What was your winrate?

CrMenace · #3 01-31-2007, 08:17 PM

You are now the member of a large and esteemed club:

300BB downswing club

Zeldark · #4 01-31-2007, 09:31 PM

Have you been thinking about the quality of your play? It's not necessarily true, but my bet is that you are suffering from "I think I'm better than I really am and shouldn't be losing this much" syndrome. I say this because I was once there.

Am I a professional impatiently tapping my foot wondering why I haven't been asked to hop in the well yet? No.

Am I still in a career destroying 450BB slump? After analyzing my play and adjusting, I can say no to this question too.

Questions for you: What stakes are you playing at? Were you playing comfortably at these stakes before the slump began? Where are you playing? Are you overdosing on multitables?

OziBattler · #5 01-31-2007, 09:55 PM

windydink, in all seriousness I bet that this is closely related to your first post where you had a plan to make 60k by 12 tabling or whatever the actual plan was. You may well be overextending yourself by playing too many tables and playing when you arent in a state to play your A game.
edit: okay, so I had another quick read of your make 60k post and if I read correctly this supposed downswing might ahve started before your plan. It is not the least bit suprising that it continued or got worse when you started your plan. In any event, when you play as many tables as you do your win rate will inevitably drop and thus any downturn is going to hit you harder since your winrate would be closer to zero.

In the end, most of us replying to this and that other post dont know how well you play and are going to be making assumptions. Basically the best person to diagnose your possible reasons as to why you are having a downswing is YOU although it would be fundamentally amiss of me to not mention Session Reviews as a way to get someone else to go over some hands for you. <font color="white"> 00Snitch, will probably make some comment about me pimping session reviews in a reply to this post...holla </font>
last time i had a downswing I grossly underestimated how much of the downswing was directly related to poor play on my part. Getting out of that downswing very much me involved fixing leaks in my game rather than waiting for the variance pendulum to swing back in my favour. If you want to read how I busted out of my self imposed downswing then the thread by me in the digest that is stickied at the top of the page.

Z

ps I love the fact that one can bonuswhore, lose heavily and still come out the other end with more money that one started with. The only problem is that the easy to clear bonuses do dry up somewhat and you'd have to move down to the list less easy ones.

winkydinky85 · #6 02-02-2007, 05:39 AM

Appreciate the posts guys my horrible fortune continues. I have not made a straight or a flush in almost 1200 hands (no joke I swear), I have not hit a set with a pocket pair I did not raise with preflop in 1500 hands. But I have hit a few with AA and KK when I really did not need them. Anyway here is a look at my last couple of sessions.

UB $1/$2 Limit
1/31/07 10 PM-midnight, -20BB in 850 hands
2/1/07 4PM-7PM, -40 BB in 460 hands

I am a little more frustrated now than I was before because I am not really getting sucked out as much I am just not able to make a hand to save my life (flush, straight, or set). I have probably lost about 2/3rds worth of the downswing going after flushes and straights that are not coming. Or if I get them they lost to a better flush or get rivered by a full house. My stacks are now just slowly bleeding away because I am not willing to play crappy hands to try and rebuild my falling stack. My numbers are 17/11/2.7. I had a table earlier that I played 250 hands and saw the river 6 times. I also had a table in which I won 12 out of 188 hands and 10 of those were blind steals.

So just figured I would update you guys (if you care) and am again asking for some form ff friendly knowledge and support, thanks for your time.

fretelöo · #7 02-02-2007, 05:46 AM

winky,

if it's any consolation (I know it won't be but anyways): that's exactly what's happening to me the last two days.

Stick with it.

jaxUp · #8 02-02-2007, 05:50 AM

winky,check out this amazing article from the January 2+2 mag...it really gives you some things to think about, and I find it very calming.

Playing the Downswings - Cameron Harris

winkydinky85 · #9 02-02-2007, 05:52 AM

Thanks a lot I appreciate it.

Poker Plan · #10 02-02-2007, 07:56 AM

Take a Break.............

No poker for a week or two. No poker books, no 2+2, etc.

You need to let your mind settle back into "Winning" Mode again- and get it out of this "Sh*t, when is this F*ckin' nighmare going to end?????" Mode.

Don't take this as condescending- but I would suggest that only a small(ish) proportion of your downswing is due to variance. The rest is down to your play. If this is indeed the case (I've done it many times myself)- things won't change until you get the correct mindset back. Hence, a break is needed.

Ian