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#31
02-02-2007, 03:32 PM
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Re: Disgusting river spot with set
[ QUOTE ]
I DO think he might say to himself '[censored] I guess 88 is no good. But a flush just got there, oh look a straight just got there too! Shove time, it's the only way to win the hand'. [/ QUOTE ] The insta-jam tell negates this, as he didn't have time to think like this. Not to mention he was calling turn thinking its likely he has the best hand if he had a marginal made hand. 
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#33
02-02-2007, 03:52 PM
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Re: Disgusting river spot with set
If I played the hand I would think that even a fish takes a second or two before he jams river if his draw came in. Thus I believe he decided on turn that he would shove any river, hence unlikely the draw helped him.
But I'm showdown monkey.
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#34
02-02-2007, 03:59 PM
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Re: Disgusting river spot with set
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] AJ, It's three handed You have three of a kind People are bad at poker [/ QUOTE ] No offense, but logic like that doesn't really set you apart from the non-thinkers, as thats exactly what you're doing here. Playing mechanically and following dumb "apply-to-all" guidelines instead of actually taking the time to think pretty much guarantees mediocrity. I think the bottom line is pretty simple. There really isn't a weaker hand he could have gotten to and be playing for value this way on the river, and unless hes a COMPLETE maniac (which he isnt), theres no way hes on a blow-up here a THIRD of the time (maybe he is 5-10%? throw in some more % for randomness and its still not really close). [/ QUOTE ] Here's where we disagree. I think there are plenty of worse hands he can have that push that river vor value. In most donkish 2/4 Party players minds if they can beat TPTK in this situation they're pretty happy to get their money in. Equally I see plenty of players who will complete in the blinds with any two. Hands we beat: - AA/KK - 2pair from Q953 - 33 - 55 - Some random bluff Hands that beat us - 46 - 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] x [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] - 67 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] imo it's just not the case that hands from the second category are twice as likely than those from the first.
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#35
02-02-2007, 04:00 PM
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Re: Disgusting river spot with set
[ QUOTE ]
Thus I believe he decided on turn that he would shove any river [/ QUOTE ] 
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#36
02-02-2007, 05:17 PM
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Re: Disgusting river spot with set
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] AJ, It's three handed You have three of a kind People are bad at poker [/ QUOTE ] No offense, but logic like that doesn't really set you apart from the non-thinkers, as thats exactly what you're doing here. Playing mechanically and following dumb "apply-to-all" guidelines instead of actually taking the time to think pretty much guarantees mediocrity. I think the bottom line is pretty simple. There really isn't a weaker hand he could have gotten to and be playing for value this way on the river, and unless hes a COMPLETE maniac (which he isnt), theres no way hes on a blow-up here a THIRD of the time (maybe he is 5-10%? throw in some more % for randomness and its still not really close). [/ QUOTE ] Here's where we disagree. I think there are plenty of worse hands he can have that push that river vor value. In most donkish 2/4 Party players minds if they can beat TPTK in this situation they're pretty happy to get their money in. Equally I see plenty of players who will complete in the blinds with any two. Hands we beat: - AA/KK - 2pair from Q953 - 33 - 55 - Some random bluff Hands that beat us - 46 - 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] x [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] - 67 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] imo it's just not the case that hands from the second category are twice as likely than those from the first. [/ QUOTE ] I can't honestly apply your range of "hands we beat" to villain... i could maybe see a set playing like this but it would be really ugly... two pair and AA/KK are not doing this, esepcially not the overpairs. It looks sooooo much like we're behind, so like someone said on the first page, if i'm playing well i'm folding, if I'm not I just whine about how unlucky I am and call.
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#37
02-02-2007, 05:42 PM
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Re: Disgusting river spot with set
[ QUOTE ]
Ajfenix, You are putting way too much thought into this. Villain is probably bad, the only draws that got there was a weak oesd and a backdoor flush draw and you have a set. I normally don't like justifying plays by saying your hand is too good to fold but in this spot it is true. Keep calling my analysis lazy or w/e but seriously you have a set getting 2:1 call. [/ QUOTE ] Eagles, its not that your analysis is lazy, its that it is bad. As usual.
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#38
02-02-2007, 05:45 PM
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Re: Disgusting river spot with set
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Ajfenix, You are putting way too much thought into this. Villain is probably bad, the only draws that got there was a weak oesd and a backdoor flush draw and you have a set. I normally don't like justifying plays by saying your hand is too good to fold but in this spot it is true. Keep calling my analysis lazy or w/e but seriously you have a set getting 2:1 call. [/ QUOTE ] Eagles, its not that your analysis is lazy, its that it is bad. As usual. [/ QUOTE ] I wish I was as good as you
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#39
02-02-2007, 06:47 PM
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Re: Disgusting river spot with set
Hi guys,
Quite simply, I'm not folding this when I'm on any semblance of tilt (which is fairly infrequent). So, if I had the right mind to make this decision, it would go something like this: against non-regulars, I would fold this river to an insta push, because I believe that when he acts very very quickly, he's either checking quickly to induce a bet, or betting quickly to induce a "insta-tilt-like-i have a set i can't fold- call". If he waits 5 seconds and shoves, I'd go ahead and call. If he pauses he's thinking of some elaborate bluff or trying to figure out what the [censored] to do with two pair or a missed draw- but he if instas, you KNOW he was looking for that diamond on the river. FWIW, I would never, ever use this line of thinking against a good regular. Against a guy like this though, I think his range can be really wide, including a whole wave of draws that his and a whole waves of draws that missed and a whole wave of worse made hands that think they're pushing for value, because frequently players such as this don't know the difference between pushing for value or as a bluff- like when you check call 1/2 river bets and random guys are like v-betting second pair type hands- or bluffing with them- they just don't know. I don't think I Really added anything ground breaking, but those are my thoughts.
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