Disgusting river spot with set

Isura · #1 02-02-2007, 12:45 PM

He was 35/9 (small sample), but I didn't really consider that during the hand. I probably should bet more on turn. River push was instant FWIW.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (3 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($581.90)
Button ($214.45)
SB ($650.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
1 fold, SB (poster) completes, Hero raises to $12, SB calls $12.

Flop: ($32) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $20, Hero raises to $60, SB calls $40.

Turn: ($152) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $108, SB calls $108.

River: ($368) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB calls $466.50 (All-In), Hero

AJFenix · #2 02-02-2007, 12:54 PM

Yeah, I'd fold. Something like 5d6d/57dd and maybe 46 are his most likely holdings. River jam like that AFTER flush comes through doesnt look like a weaker set pretty much ever from someone with passive-ish 35/9 stats and he wouldn't have gotten to the river like that most of the time (id guess hed put a raise in on the turn high % with 555 333), and I really doubt he is bluffing like this.

Eagles · #3 02-02-2007, 12:56 PM

Ummm how is this disgusting?
edit: didn't see 46 got there which makes it closer. I still call you have set and the only hand that beats you is 46 or backdoor flush.

DJ Sensei · #4 02-02-2007, 12:59 PM

well on the plus side you only have to call like $390...

yuck. if i'm playing well, I fold. if not, i call. i also really wish i had more reads.

capone0 · #5 02-02-2007, 01:00 PM

How about 67dd as well?

AJFenix · #6 02-02-2007, 01:01 PM

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Ummm how is this disgusting?
edit: didn't see 46 got there which makes it closer. I still call you have set and the only hand that beats you is 46 or backdoor flush.

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What hand do you expect to see yourself ahead of here ever? The fact that its a blind battle is what makes it disgusting, as it makes a weird blowup more likely, but his INSTA jam tells us he didn't make up his mind to bluff diamonds on the river, and I really doubt a dude with that wide of a discrepancy statwise is elaborate enough to call with some kind of random pair-ish holding with the intention of turning his marginal holding into a bluff on a river diamond. Aside from a really weird blowup, which the likelyhood of is greater because of the blind battle dynamic, you are beat here. And I don't think hes blowing up enough of the time to call here.

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How about 67dd as well?

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Yeah, those gd double gutters are well hidden [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Other 5/diamond holdings are possible as well.

Fisher32 · #7 02-02-2007, 01:01 PM

The only hand you have to be concerned about here is A5D. It sure smells like it. But I don't give damn. I'll pay that off all day if he's going to keep playing.

Isura · #8 02-02-2007, 01:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The only hand you have to be concerned about here is A5D. It sure smells like it. But I don't give damn. I'll pay that off all day if he's going to keep playing.

[/ QUOTE ]

A4d and 64 as well.

Jinx · #9 02-02-2007, 01:05 PM

i would not fold, especially if you've been aggressive during the match

Fisher32 · #10 02-02-2007, 01:09 PM

46 is no possible, you have got to be a real donk to call it heads up.

A4 is not possible, he would have laid it down on the flop to the reraise.