bottom 2 pair get counterfeited, ps 5/10

[JJH3984]

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however, none of these hands really have a hard decision heads up. They all likely call fairly quickly.

I think villian is considering how likely it is that the OP is bluffing, and whether he should call down with ace high. Then he decides he should. So I value bet my pair o' fours.

-eric

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Or he is watching the Lakers game. This pause means very little. Maybe he is thinkng of threebetting, maybe he is contemplating how his TPTK just got owned. It could be anything. Someone else mistakenly said you beat A3 now. You don't. You don't beat anything. People with these stats don't call down with ace high enough given this action to make this a viable value bet.

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yes, he does beat A3.

Villian would two pair with 3's, hero would have two pair with 4's

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[censored] i'm dumb.

[elindauer]

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or he's trying to figure out wtf to do with his JJ, and decides to just call down.

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This is POSSIBLE, of course. But really, if you held JJ, would you think about laying it down in a blind v blind situation like this? I doubt it. More likely, you'd just call and call the river and hope. It's just not a spot that someone is going to spend a LONG time thinking about.

At least, not usually. Yes, sometimes you'll bet and he'll call with a better hand. But if he's like most people, he's calling the river with any made hand he called with on the turn, and that includes a lot of ace high hands.

Whatever, maybe you just play against different kinds of opponents than I do. Maybe you have a tighter image than me, and get more respect on your turn raises. Who knows. I guess there's no point in trying to convince you any more, we'll just have to agree to disagree.

good luck.
eric

[elindauer]

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Someone else mistakenly said you beat A3 now. You don't. You don't beat anything.

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huh? I just double-checked the board. I think you do beat A3. Am I missing something? 7s and 4s beats 7s and 3s.

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People with these stats don't call down with ace high enough given this action to make this a viable value bet.

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Another stats claim. You have no short-handed stats on this guy. We haven't even been told his SD% for full ring. All we know about him is that he's not afraid to raise preflop, and has a very high postflop aggression. Isn't this consistent with someone who could steal with a 3, or could bet ace high twice and still reach a showdown? I just don't see how you can use a stats argument to make definitive claims about villains game. At best, we have some shaky evidence about how he might play heads up, but certainly not enough to say anything definitively.

-eric

[JJH3984]

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Someone else mistakenly said you beat A3 now. You don't. You don't beat anything.

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huh? I just double-checked the board. I think you do beat A3. Am I missing something? 7s and 4s beats 7s and 3s.

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People with these stats don't call down with ace high enough given this action to make this a viable value bet.

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Another stats claim. You have no short-handed stats on this guy. We haven't even been told his SD% for full ring. All we know about him is that he's not afraid to raise preflop, and has a very high postflop aggression. Isn't this consistent with someone who could steal with a 3, or could bet ace high twice and still reach a showdown? I just don't see how you can use a stats argument to make definitive claims about villains game. At best, we have some shaky evidence about how he might play heads up, but certainly not enough to say anything definitively.

-eric

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We have a general picture of an aggressive player. You get a high aggression factor by raising or folding not by calling. I'm much more comfortable value betting thin against a player who is 20/8/.1 than against this guy.

[elindauer]

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You get a high aggression factor by raising or folding not by calling.

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This is an excellent point. However, there are several mitigating factors. 1. we haven't been told his WSD% 2. this is only a 100 hand sample size 3. we are heads up, blind vs blind, which most people play differently than their normal full ring game.

And we have the added information of his hesitancy on the turn. Some would argue that this should be ignored, but I disagree. Sure, it COULD be that he got a phone call right then, or was watching TV, or whatever, but it's far more likely that he is actually thinking about his hand. As poker players, we have to weigh the odds, and the odds in this spot far favor him having a weak made hand that will call a river bet. It's not 100%, but few things ever are.

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I'm much more comfortable value betting thin against a player who is 20/8/.1 than against this guy.

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We are certainly in agreement here! But of course, they may both be good value bets.

Anyways, I don't think it's the clearest thing in the world, it's thin. But it's there, IMO. As an aside, consistent, relentless value betting is a key ingredient of good heads up limit hold 'em. You want your opponents to pay with their ace high unimproved calldowns, since you will so often actually hold diamonds here. If you can get them to fold ace high unimproved with a show of aggression, you are well on your way to dominating the game.

(Admittedly, this is somewhat of a metagame concern, and in a full ring game, you can deviate from this and still win since you won't play this guy heads up very often)

[TheHip41]

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You get a high aggression factor by raising or folding not by calling.

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This is an excellent point. However, there are several mitigating factors. 1. we haven't been told his WSD% 2. this is only a 100 hand sample size 3. we are heads up, blind vs blind, which most people play differently than their normal full ring game.

And we have the added information of his hesitancy on the turn. Some would argue that this should be ignored, but I disagree. Sure, it COULD be that he got a phone call right then, or was watching TV, or whatever, but it's far more likely that he is actually thinking about his hand. As poker players, we have to weigh the odds, and the odds in this spot far favor him having a weak made hand that will call a river bet. It's not 100%, but few things ever are.

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I'm much more comfortable value betting thin against a player who is 20/8/.1 than against this guy.

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We are certainly in agreement here! But of course, they may both be good value bets.

Anyways, I don't think it's the clearest thing in the world, it's thin. But it's there, IMO. As an aside, consistent, relentless value betting is a key ingredient of good heads up limit hold 'em. You want your opponents to pay with their ace high unimproved calldowns, since you will so often actually hold diamonds here. If you can get them to fold ace high unimproved with a show of aggression, you are well on your way to dominating the game.

(Admittedly, this is somewhat of a metagame concern, and in a full ring game, you can deviate from this and still win since you won't play this guy heads up very often)

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you also don't want to be value betting yourself to death either.

It's close, so either way, it probably doesn't matter much either way.

[elindauer]

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you also don't want to be value betting yourself to death either.

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I don't understand what this means.

On a paired board like this, holding 3rd pair is pretty good, especially given that you beat the bottom flopped pair (ie, it's better than flopping bottom pair and having the turn come lower, since it's exactly that flop bottom pair that may be keeping your opponent betting and sticking around).

This is just one of the many counter-intuitve outlook changes you have to make to go from full ring to heads up. If you play mostly full ring, you see a lot more situations where you want to check behind on this river. In heads up play, you value bet it.

-eric

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Check the river, only if you like money.

My thoughts is either he can't call with a worse hand...or he calls with some pocket pair that beats you.

I just don't see him having a worse hand enough to actually be able to call with you winning.

FYI, I also fold preflop.

[Alex424]

i'd check, only value bet if he would call you with a worse hand and that would be???

and btw, read are very important, but anyone who thinks they have a really good read on a player after seeing them play 100 hands is making major mistakes

[lasa]

Check it. He probably made a decision to see the SD on the turn and pretty much everything but A high beats you.

I usually let this go PF unless the SB folds on flop easily.