bottom 2 pair get counterfeited, ps 5/10

#1 01-28-2007, 09:12 PM

hi,

sb is 20/12/3 after 100 hands.

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
8 folds, SB raises, Hero calls.

Flop: (4 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls.

River: (7 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ?

flop: against that aggressive guy, i was planning to raise any turn and take a free showdown if called.

turn: he paused a long time before calling the turn, so i was putting him on either a small pair, a pp, or a pair+a gutshot, or just a draw, maybe flush draw

river: obviously he now called me with any K, c/r me with a 7 or a flush(unlikely in my mind, given the time he took to call the turn, but i know i must be careful with clicking tells), and folded any draw that i beat
so my question is: is there a point in betting this river?, does he fold something i beat enough of the time??

TheHip41 · #2 01-28-2007, 09:14 PM

i check

elindauer · #3 01-28-2007, 09:20 PM

Bet river, but not as a bluff, as a value bet. Get called by ace high. Or any 3. Or pocket 2s. Know that they are calling in the hopes that you hold a missed flush draw. Smile at your powerful new understanding of value-betting in heads up games.

good luck.
eric

JJH3984 · #4 01-28-2007, 09:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Bet river, but not as a bluff, as a value bet. Get called by ace high. Or any 3. Or pocket 2s. Know that they are calling in the hopes that you hold a missed flush draw. Smile at your powerful new understanding of value-betting in heads up games.

good luck.
eric

[/ QUOTE ]

I value bet too much probably and I would never think of betting this river. Easy check IMO.

TheHip41 · #5 01-28-2007, 09:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Bet river, but not as a bluff, as a value bet. Get called by ace high. Or any 3. Or pocket 2s. Know that they are calling in the hopes that you hold a missed flush draw. Smile at your powerful new understanding of value-betting in heads up games.

good luck.
eric

[/ QUOTE ]

this guy is a 20-12, he doesn't have 22 after he calls the turn raise, or 3T.

All you beat really is A3, and I'm not sure he's calling the raise.

elindauer · #6 01-28-2007, 09:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet river, but not as a bluff, as a value bet. Get called by ace high. Or any 3. Or pocket 2s. Know that they are calling in the hopes that you hold a missed flush draw. Smile at your powerful new understanding of value-betting in heads up games.

good luck.
eric

[/ QUOTE ]

I value bet too much probably and I would never think of betting this river. Easy check IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, but you're saying so doesn't make it true.

what do you think the villain is thinking about on the turn? The OP thinks it's this:

[ QUOTE ]
turn: he paused a long time before calling the turn, so i was putting him on either a small pair, a pp, or a pair+a gutshot, or just a draw, maybe flush draw

[/ QUOTE ]

however, none of these hands really have a hard decision heads up. They all likely call fairly quickly.

I think villian is considering how likely it is that the OP is bluffing, and whether he should call down with ace high. Then he decides he should. So I value bet my pair o' fours.

-eric

elindauer · #7 01-28-2007, 09:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet river, but not as a bluff, as a value bet. Get called by ace high. Or any 3. Or pocket 2s. Know that they are calling in the hopes that you hold a missed flush draw. Smile at your powerful new understanding of value-betting in heads up games.

good luck.
eric

[/ QUOTE ]

this guy is a 20-12, he doesn't have 22 after he calls the turn raise, or 3T.

All you beat really is A3, and I'm not sure he's calling the raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you possibly know this guys turn calling range? You've been given data of 100 full ring hands. Where do you dig out from this how he plays in SB vs BB heads up battles?! C'mon now. That's crazy. You weren't even given showdown %!

Personally, I go with my default play, which is to assume that I will be called down by ace high. His turn hesitancy seems totally consistent with somebody deciding whether it's worth calling down light.

my 2 cents.
eric

JJH3984 · #8 01-28-2007, 10:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
however, none of these hands really have a hard decision heads up. They all likely call fairly quickly.

I think villian is considering how likely it is that the OP is bluffing, and whether he should call down with ace high. Then he decides he should. So I value bet my pair o' fours.

-eric

[/ QUOTE ]

Or he is watching the Lakers game. This pause means very little. Maybe he is thinkng of threebetting, maybe he is contemplating how his TPTK just got owned. It could be anything. Someone else mistakenly said you beat A3 now. You don't. You don't beat anything. People with these stats don't call down with ace high enough given this action to make this a viable value bet.

TheHip41 · #9 01-28-2007, 10:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet river, but not as a bluff, as a value bet. Get called by ace high. Or any 3. Or pocket 2s. Know that they are calling in the hopes that you hold a missed flush draw. Smile at your powerful new understanding of value-betting in heads up games.

good luck.
eric

[/ QUOTE ]

this guy is a 20-12, he doesn't have 22 after he calls the turn raise, or 3T.

All you beat really is A3, and I'm not sure he's calling the raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you possibly know this guys turn calling range? You've been given data of 100 full ring hands. Where do you dig out from this how he plays in SB vs BB heads up battles?! C'mon now. That's crazy. You weren't even given showdown %!

Personally, I go with my default play, which is to assume that I will be called down by ace high. His turn hesitancy seems totally consistent with somebody deciding whether it's worth calling down light.

my 2 cents.
eric

[/ QUOTE ]

or he's trying to figure out wtf to do with his JJ, and decides to just call down.

I just think this isn't much of a value bet.

Or, it is a value bet, you are just value betting his hand more often than not.

I just think you bet, he folds alot, or he calls with a better hand most of the time, and A-high less often.

TheHip41 · #10 01-28-2007, 10:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
however, none of these hands really have a hard decision heads up. They all likely call fairly quickly.

I think villian is considering how likely it is that the OP is bluffing, and whether he should call down with ace high. Then he decides he should. So I value bet my pair o' fours.

-eric

[/ QUOTE ]

Or he is watching the Lakers game. This pause means very little. Maybe he is thinkng of threebetting, maybe he is contemplating how his TPTK just got owned. It could be anything. Someone else mistakenly said you beat A3 now. You don't. You don't beat anything. People with these stats don't call down with ace high enough given this action to make this a viable value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, he does beat A3.

Villian would two pair with 3's, hero would have two pair with 4's