KT blind steal Missed a raise anywhere?

[kerowo]

Why do you think it is a blind steal from MP3? Do the CO and Button fold 85%+ of their hands? If it is a blind steal then I'm not slowing down with top pair unless this guy is squeeky tight because he might just go crazy with A high.

[BigBadBabar]

when i have a decent hand in mp/lp and it's folded to me i raise, i guess with the hope of taking the blinds and also for semivalue, i mean it's not a pure blindsteal like i have j3o on the button, folded to me, and raise it up.

[Buckmulligan]

well if you don't think villain perceives it as a steal, why would you ever raise this postfloP?

[kerowo]

[ QUOTE ]
well if you don't think villain perceives it as a steal, why would you ever raise this postfloP?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't want villain to EVAR perceive that I'm "stealing" his blind, I want them to think I'm playing strong hands so they know to fold those weak aces.

[Absolution]

[ QUOTE ]
well if you don't think villain perceives it as a steal, why would you ever raise this postfloP?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. If he has a normal 3-betting range this is WA/WB. If he's on a steal you're probably still WA, but since you don't know which one it is I think it's best to keep him bluffing while not letting him raise his big hands.

[tyler_cracker]

[ QUOTE ]
some hands that are likely in his range (pairs up to qq, aq, aj), are likely to call our turn bet in search of pairing up

[/ QUOTE ]

disagree. a tightish tag isn't calling here with AQ or AJ[1], is rarely calling with 99-jj, and probably shouldn't call with qq.

[1] although see below about something like A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]x

[ QUOTE ]

or of hitting the flush on the river, so we get an extra bet out of him by raising the turn.

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upon some reflection, i think this may swing us to a turn raise. if villain has a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] he will call a raise now, but won't give us any action if the river is a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and won't put more money in once he misses.

also, villain's stats suggest he's a little weak, so he doesn't 3bet many of his holdings.

[tyler_cracker]

[ QUOTE ]
Because if I'm ahead it is probably at risk of being drawn out on and if this guy is a typical 18/8 (or whatever it was) he will probably fold to aggression

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands are you ahead of on the flop that have a meaningful number of outs against you? A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] == 2 combos.

Raising the flop is bad.

[johno]

Grunch.

I think I would call the turn bet if it hadn't been a heart.

With a 3rd heart, I think a raise may be better. We may have the best hand, and the turn C-bet could be a bluff, or semi-bluff, with a high heart. In either case, getting more bets in on the turn seems preferable. A re-raise with a possible flush on the board, seems to be quite a strong move, and is probably less likely than with a turn blank. Depending on villain aggression, I might be tempted to fold to a re-raise.

What do you think?

[Aaron W.]

I'm calling the flop and raising the turn. I probably also check behind on the river. You get called by a bunch of hands that beat you (AK/KQ/KJ/AA), sometimes that you beat (QQ/JJ/TT), and the other hands probably check-fold (AQ/AJ and sometimes QQ/JJ/TT that had a heart).

As played, I would guess villain most likely had AQ with a heart.

[johno]

Having read the thread, I have a couple more thoughts.

"is this super standard WA/WB?"

Don't there have to be no draws for WA/WB? The third heart makes our hand stronger if behind, and makes value betting more important if we are ahead.

"...blind steal situation..."

Is there a risk in playing too passively after attempting a blind steal? Might encourage preflop villain aggressive defense.