My estimates for NFL Conference and Super Bowl odds - Page 2

Homer · #11 01-05-2007, 02:45 PM

God, you're a [censored] prick. Try picking your targets better in the future.

King Yao · #12 01-05-2007, 03:26 PM

Differences in opinion is what makes a market. Thanks for the opinion, I may adjust some of my numbers based on your thoughts. At the least, I'll give it more thought than I did before. Thanks.

King Yao · #13 01-05-2007, 03:28 PM

What do you think a potential BAL at SD line will be? A lot of things can change between now and that meeting, but what do you think it will be if they played this weekend for the Conference Championship?

I used SD -3 in my numbers.

Thremp · #14 01-05-2007, 04:44 PM

Yao, are you trying to predict what the lines will be or what they should be...? Not that there really is a vast difference.

MCS · #15 01-05-2007, 05:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yao, are you trying to predict what the lines will be or what they should be...?

[/ QUOTE ]

He already answered this question earlier in the thread. The numbers are what he believes to be zero-EV lines.

King Yao · #16 01-05-2007, 05:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yao, are you trying to predict what the lines will be or what they should be...? Not that there really is a vast difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I estimate lines for the purposes of value on futures, I try to predict what the lines will be. I want to be able to compare the relative value of futures prices versus the individual game prices.

I may shade some of the lines if I have a strong opinion on a game versus where I think the market will be...but in this case, I didn't have a strong opinion.

Thremp · #17 01-05-2007, 06:32 PM

King Yao,

Thanks.

CarlSpackler · #18 01-05-2007, 06:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think a potential BAL at SD line will be? A lot of things can change between now and that meeting, but what do you think it will be if they played this weekend for the Conference Championship?

I used SD -3 in my numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoever said the difference between SD and Balt was too much, I completely disagree. If they played this weekend at SD, no way the line would be lower than -3. If it didn't open at -3, I think it would go at -3.5 or -4.

MCS · #19 01-05-2007, 09:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think a potential BAL at SD line will be?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would guess SD -3.5. The public LOVES San Diego right now, and that might be enough to even make it 4. I'll still say 3.5 though, since I think sharps would pound the 4 into 3.5 soon enough anyway.