My estimates for NFL Conference and Super Bowl odds

[King Yao]

Here are my estimated odds to win the conference and the Super Bowl for each team in the playoffs. What do you guys think?

The first number is to win the Conference, second number is to win the Super Bowl

SD +128 / +209
BAL +286 / +469
IND +620 / +962
NE +650 / +990
NYJ 76-1 / 148-1
KC 60-1 / 113-1

CHI +126 / +572
NO +264 / +1170
PHI +648 / 26-1
SEA +1340 / 62-1
DAL +1583 / 66-1
NYG 47-1 / 236-1

[ImBen]

I'll take the Giants for the limit please.

[NajdorfDefense]

KC and Giants look a little low. CHI looks a tad high.

[crockpot]

i'm a total n00b at predicting lines, but here's my attempt:

SD: +126 / +233
Bal: +212 / +359
NE: +744 / +1188
Ind: +948 / +1548

Chi: +116 / +507
NO: +254 / +999
Phi: +632 / +2170
Sea: +1857 / +7139
Dal: +2103 / +7209

i think the big differences between mine and king's, indy and baltimore, are because i'm using a combination of traditional stats and football outsiders stuff, which ranks baltimore as the number 1 team in the nfl. i think if baltimore and san diego meet, it's even possible the computer people may pound the line near even, despite san diego's home-field edge.

[King Yao]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll take the Giants for the limit please.

[/ QUOTE ]

These are not sportsbook odds or lines I'd bet on or lay, it's lines that I think are fair. I'd bet them if odds were higher or lay them if odds were lower.

I had: NYG 47-1 / 236-1
That reflects 2.1% and 0.4%

If I were going to buy and sell, I'd pay 1% and sell at 3% for NYG to win the NFC, and pay 0.2% and sell at 1% for them to win the SB.

So in effect, if I was a sportsbook, the lines you'd see (since they are one-sided lines that customers can only buy and not sell) would be:

NYG 32-1 / 99-1

[King Yao]

[ QUOTE ]
CHI looks a tad high.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here are the expected lines I used in CHI's possible games. Which ones look high to you?

vs NYG -7
vs DAL -4.5
vs SEA -6
vs NO -3
vs PHI -3.5

of course, a lot of things can change these possible lines between now and those games. Injuries, great play, poor play, etc. But these are the lines I used in my estimate.

One thing that a couple of other astute guys have said to me is that they think the PHI line is too high...that maybe it would be CHI -3 or -2.5. I thought about that for a while, and decided I was comfortable with -3.5 so I stuck with that.

[ImBen]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'll take the Giants for the limit please.

[/ QUOTE ]

These are not sportsbook odds or lines I'd bet on or lay, it's lines that I think are fair. I'd bet them if odds were higher or lay them if odds were lower.


[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I'll give you -22500 on Giants to not win Super Bowl for as high as you can count. PM me with contact info.

[ QUOTE ]

I had: NYG 47-1 / 236-1
That reflects 2.1% and 0.4%

If I were going to buy and sell, I'd pay 1% and sell at 3% for NYG to win the NFC, and pay 0.2% and sell at 1% for them to win the SB.

So in effect, if I was a sportsbook, the lines you'd see (since they are one-sided lines that customers can only buy and not sell) would be:

NYG 32-1 / 99-1

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty advanced math here. Thanks for the lesson.

Comical that you need an edge which equates to a 57.4% Kelly wager as your minimum threshold. I guess that makes it convenient to not actually have to back up your pseudo-quant drivel.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

I think the difference between SD and Baltimore is way too much. these teams are pretty close to one another.

[Backspin20]

looks more like this but you were close.. Jets +3k nice

To Win NFC Conference 2007
Sat 1/6 4:30PM (EST)

417 Carolina Panthers
418 Seattle Seahawks +900
419 Dallas Cowboys +800
420 New York Giants +1800
421 Washington Redskins
422 Philadelphia Eagles +330
423 Chicago Bears +100
424 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
425 Minnesota Vikings
426 Atlanta Falcons
427 Arizona Cardinals
428 St. Louis Rams
429 Detroit Lions
430 Green Bay Packers
431 New Orleans Saints +200
432 San Francisco 49ers


To Win AFC Conference 2007
Sat 1/6 4:30PM (EST)

401 Indianapolis Colts +550
402 New England Patriots +500
403 Pittsburgh Steelers
404 Denver Broncos
405 Kansas City Chiefs +2500
406 Miami Dolphins
407 San Diego Chargers +105
408 Cincinnati Bengals
409 Jacksonville Jaguars
410 Baltimore Ravens +250
411 Cleveland Browns
412 Oakland Raiders
413 New York Jets +3000
414 Buffalo Bills
415 Houston Texans
416 Tennessee Titans

To Win Superbowl XLI
Sat 1/6 4:30PM (EST)

5001 San Diego Chargers +175
5002 Baltimore Ravens +400
5003 Chicago Bears +450
5004 New Orleans Saints +750
5005 Indianapolis Colts +900
5006 New England Patriots +650
5007 Philadelphia Eagles +950
5008 Dallas Cowboys +2400
5009 Seattle Seahawks +1600
5010 New York Jets +4000
5011 Kansas City Chiefs +3500
5012 New York Giants +4000

[NajdorfDefense]

I'd make PHL 3, and SEA lower, and maybe NO 2.5.

Giving SEA 6 with a healthy QB and RB situation now seems like a bit much. They'd have to beat DAL obviously to get to
CHI, and a good game would have more people backing them. JMHO.