Bodog Smashing Pumpkins Prop Bet

[Utah]

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Do you have any thoughts on the other prop?

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Supposedly this album is supposed to sound more like Siamese Dream/Mellon Collie. That doesn't mean #1 in the first week though. Pumpkins also aren't as appealing to the masses like a pop act would be, but if no big pop act is releasing that week then they have a better chance.

I would lean towards No, but would want more information before placing the bet.

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Without knowing who else is releasing that week I would say No on the "hit #1" prop for now. But I wouldn't bet it at this point because that one is really dependent on what other acts release that week or the week before.

Also, just a little more info regarding the second prop. They have been trying out bass players in studio and it looks like Eric Avery (former James Addiction bass player) is the favorite to be touring with them.

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Cool. Thanks for the info.

I did about 30 minutes of research and I hit the NO at +140. My analysis isnt real strong on this one and there isnt a ton of good info I could find so I may be way off. However, I didnt want to spend too much time on a one off $50 prop and i shouldnt have even spent 30 minutes but I thought it was interesting. My reasons for the NO:
1) Intuitively, the odds from this point in the production chain cant be better than 50%. I cant believe it is that easy to take a band like the Pumpkins and easily create a #1 opening album without any songs yet
2) The last #1 from them was 10 years ago
3) Billy's solo album a year ago did not fair well
4) Pumpkins are likely past their creativity prime and there ability to produce great songs may be diminished
5) I didnt see a lot of buzz for this announcement

But, I probably trust this bet less than any analyzed bet I have made lately but I do think that it is at least a thin value play.

[Aicirt]

Im a big Pumpkins fan so Ill throw in my 2 cents.

1) The Pumpkins still have a really large fan base and are doing a good job of getting everyone really excited for the new album on their myspace page. Jimmy Chamberlin has been posting little updates on the progress of the album. And just last night Billy Corgan released an update himself. Still no word on when the album is actually going to be released, but they have been in the studio for several months now. And yes it depends on when the album is released, but I think that the album has a decent chance of opening at #1. However I dont think Im ready to bet it at -180.

2) I am really suprised that they have yes as the favorite here. I think the general feel amongst most pumpkins fans is that neither one of them will be on the tour let alone both of them. James Iha is still listed as the guitar player for A Perfect Circle. And unless Darcy has cleaned her life up a lot, I dont think Corgan really would want her back. I would expect Melissa Auf der Maur to be the bass player over Darcy. Auf der Maur has been playing music ever since the pumpkins broke up and Darcy kinda disapeared. Auf der Maur made semi-frequent updates on her website until March of 2006. The time that she agreed to play bass with the pumpkins? *shrug* Just a guess but its not infeasible.

Even though this is money tied up for a while, I really like the no bet here.

[paperchamp]

My wife was friends with James before I met her and when I asked her about whether or not she thought he would reunite with Corgan she said that even though James dislikes Corgan (and often talks about how much he dislikes him) she could see him doing a tour in order to promote himself or his other bands.

[Utah]

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but I think that the album has a decent chance of opening at #1. However I dont think Im ready to bet it at -180.

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fyi - If you like it the odds have dropped to -125 on the Yes. The NO is now -115 (from +140 to start).

[MicroBob]

I saw the Smashing Pumpkins once.
1992.
For $5 in Madison, WI.

The little club was packed but that was maybe only 200-300 people or so.
They covered Steve Miller Band's Space Cowboy somewhere around their 3rd or 4th song.


for their 2007 tour I think I should go see them again. Long overdue.