Bodog Smashing Pumpkins Prop Bet

[Mr.JR]

Will the Smashing Pumpkins upcoming album debut at #1 on the Billboard 200 Chart?

Yes: -180
No: +140

I like the No. Have only had one album debut at #1, which was Mellon Collie and the Infinite Sadness. Next album release was Adore, which opened at #2 with 174,000 sold.Last studio album: MACHINA/The Machines of God opened at #3, but sold less than 600,000 total records. Zwan, led by Billy Corgan, opened at #3.

While a lot depends on when it will be released, I don't see this album selling well or the reunion of the Smashing Pumpkings being that big. Would likely need to sell +250,000 CD's it's first week to debut at #1.

[Utah]

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Will the Smashing Pumpkins upcoming album debut at #1 on the Billboard 200 Chart?

Yes: -180
No: +140

I like the No. Have only had one album debut at #1, which was Mellon Collie and the Infinite Sadness. Next album release was Adore, which opened at #2 with 174,000 sold.Last studio album: MACHINA/The Machines of God opened at #3, but sold less than 600,000 total records. Zwan, led by Billy Corgan, opened at #3.

While a lot depends on when it will be released, I don't see this album selling well or the reunion of the Smashing Pumpkings being that big. Would likely need to sell +250,000 CD's it's first week to debut at #1.

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I like the odds but you could have your money tied up for an entire year.

[Mr.JR]

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I like the odds but you could have your money tied up for an entire year.

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Having $50 tied up for a year doesn't bother me.

[Utah]

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I like the odds but you could have your money tied up for an entire year.

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Having $50 tied up for a year doesn't bother me.

[/ QUOTE ]I dont either at the right odds. However, there is still a decent chance of no action if my quick analysis earlier in the day is correct.

[MyTurn2Raise]

this is heavily dependent upon what other albums come out at the same time +- 2 weeks, so I'm laying off until I know more about the competition.

[Utah]

I just bet the other Pumpkin prop - "Will founding members James Iha and D'arcy Wretzky join Billy Corgan and Jimmy Chamberlin on the upcoming Smashing Pumpkins 2007 world tour?" No +100

I think there is little chance they are with the tour based on what I have read about other committments and based on the fact that they were not announced. If they were close in negotiation wouldnt they wait a few weeks and announce the whole band? However, I wanted clarification from Bodog first on what the prop exactly meant as I didnt know if it meant they had to just appear on stage.

Here is Bodog's reply - "We appreciate you contacting us to clarify the rules of this wager on the Smashing Pumpkins 2007 Tour. The wager will only result in a win if all four members of the band including; James Iha, D'arcy Wretzky, Billy Corgan and Jimmy Chamberline perform the tour and it doesn't include only reuniting for a few selected shows."

[drossxyu]

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I just bet the other Pumpkin prop - "Will founding members James Iha and D'arcy Wretzky join Billy Corgan and Jimmy Chamberlin on the upcoming Smashing Pumpkins 2007 world tour?" No +100


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I am a big Pumpkins fan and I don't see any way that all four will be back together. The nucleus is Billy and Jimmy. They are the only ones in the studio right now cranking out the new album.

D'arcy left last album because of drug problems and a sudden affection for plastic surgery and Mickey Rourke.

James could possibly be back, but I doubt it. He and Billy had a huge falling out on the last tour. Maybe they make amends or the money is right, but I think the odds of both James AND D'arcy rejoining would be astronomical.

[Utah]

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I just bet the other Pumpkin prop - "Will founding members James Iha and D'arcy Wretzky join Billy Corgan and Jimmy Chamberlin on the upcoming Smashing Pumpkins 2007 world tour?" No +100


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I am a big Pumpkins fan and I don't see any way that all four will be back together. The nucleus is Billy and Jimmy. They are the only ones in the studio right now cranking out the new album.

D'arcy left last album because of drug problems and a sudden affection for plastic surgery and Mickey Rourke.

James could possibly be back, but I doubt it. He and Billy had a huge falling out on the last tour. Maybe they make amends or the money is right, but I think the odds of both James AND D'arcy rejoining would be astronomical.

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good analysis. Even if each was a 50% chance (which they arent) it would still only be 25% that both would join. So, there is huge +EV in a +100 bet. At worst, you are getting favorable odds and at best you are getting free money (assuming they actually tour)

Do you have any thoughts on the other prop? I am starting to lean heavily to the NO but I havent bet it yet. Intuitively, there has to be a lot of things that go right for an album to hit #1 and I would guess that the odds of any album from most bands, even big ones, at the time studio work starts reaching #1 is way less than 50%

[Jackboot]

Without knowing who else is releasing that week I would say No on the "hit #1" prop for now. I wouldn't bet it at this point because that one is really dependent on what other acts release that week or the week before.

Also, just a little more info regarding the second prop. They have been trying out bass players in studio and it looks like Eric Avery (former James Addiction bass player) is the favorite to be touring with them.

[drossxyu]

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Do you have any thoughts on the other prop?

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Supposedly this album is supposed to sound more like Siamese Dream/Mellon Collie. That doesn't mean #1 in the first week though. Pumpkins also aren't as appealing to the masses like a pop act would be, but if no big pop act is releasing that week then they have a better chance.

I would lean towards No, but would want more information before placing the bet.