Jelly's EuroHockey

[jelly]

FIN-CZE 3:2 WIN LOSS
RUS-SWE 0:0 (0:1SH) WIN PUSH

New picks
Finland +0.5 at Russia (+117) 1.28u to win 1.5u
Russia/Finland OVER 5.5 (+125) 0.4u to win 0.5u

People are perhaps not crazy about Russia any longer but anything above +110 is a clear bet here. Finland played power plays well on Thursday and they were in very decent shape. Couldn't see any reason for under watching FIN-CZE Did not watch RUS-SWE 0-0, but I believe it is just overreaction as Russia is an offensive team.
Game starts on the hour.

[jelly]

Sweden vs. Czech Rep. (-124) @Moscow,RUS 1.24u to win 1u
Sweden/Czech Rep. OVER 5.5 (+129) 0.78u to win 1u

Neutral ground. Czech Rep. plays in 3rd country in 5 days while Sweden already played in Moscow on Thursday. Svoboda in net for Czech Rep. Over is close but there should be value. Sweden has a defensive reputation but in fact this year's stats don't prove that and I expect good number of penalties for Czech team (again). Had no opportunity to see earlier lines but these are sharper than I expected.

[jelly]

Czech 1.liga

Play of the Day
Hradec Kr. -0.5 at Jihlava (+130 & +121) 1.42u - 1.78u
My infamous 0-3-1 1.liga POTD is the league leader on their shortest trip on the road (call it a derby if you like). HK were reported to play really well recently so they should be favored significantly.

Other picks
Havirov +2 at M.Boleslav (+117) 0.71u - 0.83u
Usti n/L -1.5 at Olomouc (-114) 0.81u - 0.71u
Kadan +0.5 at Ostrava (-111) 0.44u - 0.4u

Couple of away teams again. In every game I can find a team that I apparently evaluate differently than bookie. Different evaluation of HFA might add to this as well but I guess it is just a minor factor.

Extraliga 6 - 5 - 0 5.52 u
1.liga 4 - 11 - 2 -5.86 u
Non CZE 8 - 11 - 0 5.41 u
International 3 - 2 - 2 2.74 u
Grand total 21 - 29 - 4 5.07 u

As for RUS-SWE arb, value of the arb is added in unit balance but only the larger bet is in WLT record.

[jelly]

RUS-FIN 3:0 LOSS LOSS

[jelly]

Nearly forgot my Loto Cup (Bratislava,SVK) pick

Latvia at Slovakia (+277 & +328) 1u - 3.14u
Originally 1 unit but line improved to current +328 so i added heavily. Slovakia has to recover from 0-2 (mild upset) w/ Switzerland and I suspect they might be thrown off a bit as Slovak teams tend to suffer from such losses, even more at home.

[jelly]

RUS-FIN 3:0 LOSS LOSS
SWE-CZE 7:5 WIN WIN
SVK-LAT 5:0 LOSS

Watched SWE-CZE and after 3:0 start, Czechs only got close at the end. Although referee was too strict for me, many of the penalties for CZE were stupid. SWE scored 5PPG+1ENG. Thanks guys, I knew you were stupid enough to blow the match on this [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Jihlava-Hradec Kr. 2:1 LOSS
Olomouc-Usti 1:1 (1:2SH) LOSS
Boleslav-Havirov 5:5 (6:5SH) WIN
Ostrava-Kadan 8:2 LOSS

This league is killing me.
Extraliga 6 - 5 - 0 5.52 u
1.liga 5 - 14 - 2 -7.7 u
Non CZE 8 - 11 - 0 5.41 u
International 5 - 5 - 2 2.05 u
Grand total 24 - 35 - 4 5.28 u

Previous Grand Totals were off as international matches were not added.

[jelly]

I missed last day of Channel One Cup. Nevermind, Extraliga is back

Slavia -0.5 vs. Liberec (+120) 0.71-0.85
Liberec has a long injury list including GK Hnilicka (you remember the name from Channel One Cup). Line picked up on that a bit so I do not find much value on any worse odds.

[jelly]

Slavia-Liberec 1:4 LOSS