Jelly's EuroHockey

[jelly]

Finally got enough to open a Pinny account with max bonus (big thanks to many posters here) so I can now access nice lines on smaller markets (all local bookies have terrible vig). So I decided to chalenge myself on Czech Extraliga and keep an eye on other European leagues.

Tuesday picks

Game of the Day
Pardubice -.5 (+115) at Plzen 2u to win 2.3u

Plzen is now at place 13/14 and struggling with long list of injuries. Malek (GK) probably still out with no good backup. Pardubice are top team (although cold recently) so no reason for them to take less than 3 points. The only caveat is that tickets for this game are for free (promotion) so HFA might come to play more than usual.


Vsetin +3 (-120) vs. Liberec 1.2u to win 1u
Vsetin is comfortably the worst team in the league and Liberec is currently on the top, but 3 goals is too much on the road. Vsetin gets slaughtered on the road but they held last year champion Sparta and hot Trinec to a single goal victory in the last two matches.


Vitkovice (+163) at Trinec 0.5u to win 0.815
The line is little high, Trinec is hot and might be overrated, Vitkovice are not that worse.


Slovakia
Kosice (+123) vs. Poprad 1.4u to win 1.722
True line seems to be just above even money and local bookies lines support that.

YTD 0-0-0 for 0 units

BTW my units are 100$ so the lines at these small markets might often be in worse shape after I bet but there should still besome value left.

[jelly]

Added a couple of more small plays on road dogs with nice odds in other leagues. No deep game analysis, more of line shopping.

HIFK (+184) at Tappara 0.54u to win 1u
Frisk/Asker (+630) at Storhamar 0.16u to win 1u
Linköping (+167) at MoDo 0.3u to win 0.5u

[jelly]

Vsetin actually plays on the road so there is actually not much value here [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
Note to self: double check next time [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[1C5]

Do you know much about these teams? Watch them live at all? I assume the games would not be on TV much there. What level of hockey is this?

[jelly]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you know much about these teams? Watch them live at all? I assume the games would not be on TV much there. What level of hockey is this?

[/ QUOTE ]

It is top level league in my country where hockey is uncontested no.2 behind soccer. I am writing this during intermission watching a game on TV. Obviously enough, the league is well covered in local media. As for watching live games, I sometimes go to Sparta games so this is the team I know best.

[jelly]

Good start. Pardubice were down 0-2 deep into 1st period so it looked scary but Plzen broke down afterwards. Vitkovice played even game decided by 55th min GWG. Vsetin stole an unexpected point on a late PPG to cover easily.

Scoreboard

Plzen-Pardubice 2:5 WIN
Trinec-Vitkovice 2:0 LOSS
Liberec-Vsetin 3:3 (4:3OT) WIN

GOTW 1-0-0 +2.30u
Extraliga 2-1-0 +2.80u

[Back In Black]

Have you followed the lines pinnacle has on these games? Are they soft?

[jelly]

[ QUOTE ]
Have you followed the lines pinnacle has on these games? Are they soft?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not before. My impression (from what I have seen today) is that they are made based just on a brief look at the league standings but not crazy either. There are 7 matches on a gameday and I had no pick in 4 of these.

[jelly]

Other picks

SVK: Kosice WIN
NOR: Frisk LOSS
SWE: Lynkoping LOSS
FIN: IFK LOSS

GOTD 1-0-0 +2.30u

Extraliga 2-1-0 +2.80u
Other leagues 1-3-0 +0.72u

Total 3-4-0 +3.52u

[jelly]

Wednesday 6/Dec

Russian Superliga today - a few moneylines look too high. The difference between teams is relatively big in this league but it takes a LOT of skill disparity for lines like +540 to be right in hockey.

Chelyabinsk (+540) at Ufa 0.19u to win 1u
Cherepovec (+410) at Omsk 0.12u to win 0.5u
Togliatti (+167) vs. Magnitogorsk 0.3u towin 0.5u