88 value bet gone wrong?

[fsista]

I would say your equity vs his hand range is close to zero. His hand range is flush, misclick imo. (MAYBE MAYBE KJ, LIKE 0,1% OF THE TIME)

I disagree with dbitel. This river should be bet 80$. I think he's just as likely to call a 80$bet as a 60$bet with a jack if he has one.

[Dan Bitel]

fsista,

i disagree...i think he calls 60 way more often..and i think 60 might even be too big

[fsista]

Wow, I usually never disagree with you. Good thing I suppose. I can tweak my response a little though, 78$ is what I would do here [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] gnight

[74o_Clownsuit]

Yea I think b/f is optimal here. You're betting to gain value from kings and maybe even jacks but you really cannot beat anything he's going to raise you with here.

[T0ne D0wn]

You are up against a set of kings or an ace high flush. Very rarely is this a bluff.

[2Paul2]

[ QUOTE ]
fsista,

i disagree...i think he calls 60 way more often..and i think 60 might even be too big

[/ QUOTE ]

Ye I agree. JA/Q/T are the only hands you are value betting against and they absolutely hate that river. Against a passive opponent I would ~30 hoping for a crying call, and happy enough to fold to a raise. Against anyone at all good/aggro I actually think checking this river may be best.

Paul

[MobBarley]

I pot the turn and c/f river.

[David Nicoson]

If you pay this off then you've justified his chase.

He's a 5.3:1 dog. He's getting 90 in the pot plus 180 in implied odds or 270:39 = 6.9:1.