Lead this flopped medium FD on paired board against big field? - Page 2

NIX · #11 11-30-2006, 11:29 PM

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I check with the intention of check-raising. If it gets checked around then I do not mind. If there is a bet, I am going to try to push out anyone with two diamonds out or a single high diamond. I do not think leading is a bad play, but I like a check-raise better on a board like this.

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If someone else has 2 diamonds, check/raising and facing them with two cold is going to fold them close to never.

Chris Daddy Cool · #12 11-30-2006, 11:30 PM

i would never lead here.

Chris Daddy Cool · #13 11-30-2006, 11:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I check with the intention of check-raising. If it gets checked around then I do not mind. If there is a bet, I am going to try to push out anyone with two diamonds out or a single high diamond. I do not think leading is a bad play, but I like a check-raise better on a board like this.

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this is a pretty bad plan.

bbbushu · #14 12-01-2006, 01:05 AM

shillx & cdc,

why not lead? i troll a good deal of yr posts, so i'm extra curious.

btw, cdc, "explostion" is not a word (and/or i'm missing a weird joke).

thanks, guys
bbbushu

Tim Brice · #15 12-01-2006, 01:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I check with the intention of check-raising. If it gets checked around then I do not mind. If there is a bet, I am going to try to push out anyone with two diamonds out or a single high diamond. I do not think leading is a bad play, but I like a check-raise better on a board like this.

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this is a pretty bad plan.

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Why? I know the board is paired and we have no chance of winning if we make a pair. But do we not want to protect our draw? Some with the A of diamonds might want to stick around for one bet and if we make a flush on the turn, they will have the odds to call. The pot has gotten fairly big. On the other hand, if it is checked around then it is not a big loss.

I also think there is realistic chance that someone with the Qx of diamonds would fold if they were face with two bets from a check-raiser.

If you are going to tell me something is a bad play, I would like to know why.

Shillx · #16 12-01-2006, 01:08 AM

General observation is that a lot of you get way too ambitious with draws. A 9-high flush draw in a 7 way pot on a paired board isn't that good of a hand.

The time to bet is when

a) You have a decent chance of winning the pot or setting yourself up to take the pot on a later street
b) You have a very strong draw that can put in a 3rd or 4th bet
c) You have a chance to clear up some pairing outs
d) PFR is last to act and you want to trap people in the middle. Again you generally want a draw that will win when it hits.

This isn't the Lee Jones weak/tightbullshit where you fold OESD's on 2-flush boards. There is just no point in betting into so many people. It probably isn't going to get checked around but you don't mind if it does. Having it go through when you have A8 is a problem but it is no big deal when you have a crappy flush draw. You are probably laying odds anyway so getting a free look at the turn might be the best result.

NIX · #17 12-01-2006, 02:33 AM

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Why? I know the board is paired and we have no chance of winning if we make a pair. But do we not want to protect our draw? Some with the A of diamonds might want to stick around for one bet and if we make a flush on the turn, they will have the odds to call. The pot has gotten fairly big. On the other hand, if it is checked around then it is not a big loss.

I also think there is realistic chance that someone with the Qx of diamonds would fold if they were face with two bets from a check-raiser.

If you are going to tell me something is a bad play, I would like to know why.

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I say checking with the intent to check/raise is a bad idea for 2 reasons.

1) If you assume that the target Villain has Adx where x isn't a king, 8, or diamond, there are 8 diamonds left in the deck. The chances of running diamonds hitting are only 3%. That is so slim, that I wouldn't be overly concerned. If someone with the Ad wants to peel, I'd let them because depending on where the original bet came from, they be calling originally with improper odds which is profit for us. Plus, let's say that they peel before the action gets to us to check/raise, they will probably have odds to call one more at that point, and we aren't protecting our draw at all.

2) If the bet comes from late position, we can check/raise now and while we may force out the not so bothersome lone Ad or Qd, we most likely won't fold out a king, 8, or stronger diamond draw. Best case scenario, we get it 3 way or so where we have a slight equity edge with our draw. Worst case scenario, we isolate a hand that has us beaten. Then, we may end up calling bets later in the hand, that while we have pot odds, we no longer have an equity edge.

jrmarenda · #18 12-01-2006, 03:11 AM

I check here most of the time, but I don't think that it is wrong to bet. The +EV from betting is offset by -EV of making your flush and losing.

SSHE has a good discussion on similar situations on pages 131-136. Does anyone's opinion change after re-reading this section?

Tim Brice · #19 12-01-2006, 01:44 PM

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I say checking with the intent to check/raise is a bad idea for 2 reasons.

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Thank you. This is a much better explanation.

Chris Daddy Cool · #20 12-01-2006, 10:09 PM

i would never bet this flop because your equity is not as good as you would think on a paired board and there is going to be hell to pay when you bet and the next guy raises and shuts out the whole field and you're HU oop with 9 high. check and call is by no means a weak-tight way to play this.