88 - River check fold?

[bbbushu]

i like bet/calling the flop and then bet/folding the turn and river.

if UTG+1 calls on the river, i think it'd be pretty hard to justify an overcall. if UTG+1 folds, i might do it since our pot odds are decent and UTG could be betting AT or something. we'll lose most of the time but it's still probably okay to call as long as it's HU when we put in the last bet.

bbbushu

[AdamL]

I agree with Kwaz, I would expect to see a call from a pp or a-high here.

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like c/r'g. When UTG1 calls, he has two higher cards or a pocket pair. If the second he's not folding and your going to lose and you're not going to know it until the showdown or the river if he pops you there. If the first, he's probably not folding and you've given him plently odds to call. When the turn comes, he now also has correct odds to call with two big cards also because of the size you've made the pot.


[/ QUOTE ]

I have got to believe that my equity on this flop is pretty decent, especially when UTG+1 just calls. The 80/10 guy still has an aggression factor of about 1, which isn't too passive for the amount of flops he sees, especially when you know these guys don't fold much.

As for the guy donking. Well, this seems like it is rarely a 9. Its likely he waits for the turn or c/res with a 9. To me it seemed likely it was a 7, a small pp, or maybe a draw. The drawing hands seemed less likely since his vpip only looks to be about 30, so hes probably not limping with stuff like 86 and T8 too often (maybe suited), although his stats are from a small sample size.

I also think that the UTG donk doesn't happen very often. I knew my hand was vulnerable, thats why I wanted to isolate an autobet from UTG+1. I hate donking into pf raisers unless they are very aggressive and I know they will raise wtih overs. Most other players will just call here or raise when you are beat (but not always realiably enough to fold). When UTG donked, and UTG+1 bet, I figured that the best play was to still follow through with my flop plan and c/r both of them. If they both had 6 outs against me (12 total), my equity is still probably about 50%. Not a bad proposition on a flop raise. Obviously this could be a little worse if one of them has an OESD like T8s, but I think this is unlikely and won't change my equity too much.

I guess I was a little suprised anyone would have a major problem with the flop line. I thought it was probably the only reasonable street, along with the turn.

Anyways, I hated the river card. Can betting into two players ever be the best play here? I probably should have check-folded, or maybe check-called if UTG checked and UTG+1 took a stab (he might think ace high is the best hand here), but instead UTG bet and I couldn't resist calling, large pot, blah blah... he had a 7.