KK, yo.

[admiralfluff]

[ QUOTE ]
The limper was meh. Bad enough to limp in 6max then call two cold preflop, but not the worst player ever or anything. Imagine something like 40/12/1.2 if you need a general stat idea.


[/ QUOTE ]

hmm. Villain's flop donk really makes no sense to me. I think he's usually check folding this river. When he calls I think he usually has a weaker pair and is trying to induce a bluff from KQ or doesn't want to get bluff raised. Maybe he was multitabling, and forgot that you 3bet preflop and bet the flop with an A (I probably have done this)?

I still like a bet/fold. I may have your image wrong, but if he's not a spew monkey I don't think he bluff c/rs this river often enough for it to be much of a concern. He just won't expect you to fold, and I don't think he has a naked A.

[SparkyDog]

mouthbreather = sucks??

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"So he bets JTs (or 88), bets it on the turn, then check-calls it on the river? Why?"

i dont know why.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he were 35/12, I'd agree (or any other number of stats) and I'd bet in a flash. Against this guy, though -- he's at least got preflop play down perfectly and he doesn't play badly enough postflop for me to say that he's a mouthbreather, which I say about a lot of my opposition. Does that count for anything?

I'm a bit amazed that you so adamantly think we're ahead here > 55% when we're called.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]
i think you're good probably 70% of the time when called (but that assumes he ever calls which he could easily never do), but since your hand seems somewhat transparent, i think you can expect to be bluff raised enough to throw this to a check. if you checked this river, i think it was the right play. if you bet it, it was likely the right play... it seems close enough to say that.

[Scary_Tiger]

[ QUOTE ]
valuetown yo.

[/ QUOTE ]

[DpR]

I do not really consider river c/r bluffs very often when determining an action, however, IMO this is a rare situation where the possibility changes the best action. Hero's hand is so transparent that the play really may enter a decent players mind to try - in fact, I think it has to be considered the best play from the villians perspective with all hands that cant beat KK. Hero's entire range consists of hands that are river bluffs or hands that cannot stand a c/r.

[milesdyson]

if somehow i played J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T like this from villain's position, i would plan on check folding the river. often i would end up check raising out of frustration.

[Victor]

dpr i disagree with you that many players have the presence to cr bluff here. thats a superstar play. it also requires entity to be a superstar. there is no way that this dude would think entity would fold river here. no one folding is the initial assumption.

[Scary_Tiger]

[ QUOTE ]
if somehow i played J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T like this from villain's position, i would plan on check folding the river. often i would end up check raising out of frustration.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain was not described as huge tilty spewmonkey.

[milesdyson]

i was trying to run some numbers but it seems weird. say we expect to be good 70% when called. and also assume he bluff check raises us off of a 9.25bb pot 5% of the time.

ev of the bet = 0.7*1 = 0.7bb
neg ev of being bluffed = 0.05*9.25 = -0.4625bb

so the + outweighs the -

but then i thought, what if the guy is check raising a ton? like 50% of the time, and calling or folding the remaining 50%. then we would not bet.

?

[Buffsta8]

Heres an interesting thought... how about bet and call the c/r? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Any villain that has a value checkraise in his arsenal on that river also has checkraise bluff and as your hand is transparent most normal players with the Ace will just value bet the river for fear of you checking down (which is probably their line with the hand)