2/4, 66, value bet this river?

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you realize the number I came up with is 34%?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, you came up with 27%. When you discounted combos like T2/62, which I didn't, you came up with 34%. You can't defend your calc by saying it's not that far from the result I got, it could easily be totally wrong despite of that.

[ QUOTE ]
Nick Royale
I don't know where you get this fairly aggressive stuff from. Losse preflop raise requirements? You don't know what his RR requirements or cold call requirements are from simply 70/12/.7. An 8% increase to 45% is crazy based on that criteria alone.

So are we on the same side here or what? Obvious check?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, we're not on the same side here. I didn't made that raise from the top of my head, I discounted the AA-TT combos because a 14% pfr will raise these preflop. i also discounted his trips/fh combos because most of the time he will play them more aggressively. His RR or CC requirements doesn't matter here since he limped in preflop, we're in position remember?

As said before, your calcs are wrong, please do them again and post the result. it seems to me that you're ignoring the advice I've given you. I've explained to you why the calcs are wrong, but you seem to not care. I've also done a very detailed calc and explained the differances between our to help you, if you're not interested in getting this correct than please do not respond to this again. This discussion isn't getting anywhere, I'm not sure it's a bet, but I'm sure it's not a definite check... and I'm leaning towards betting.

[Loser]

[ QUOTE ]
No, we're not on the same side here. I didn't made that raise from the top of my head, I discounted the AA-TT combos because a 14% pfr will raise these preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

AA-TT 4*6 = 24 combos
88-99 2*3 = 6 combos
5x 2*43 = 86 combos
33 = 3 combos

total combos 119

My discounted hands
AK-AT 4*16=64
-ahkh-ahth=4
60

new combo counts (according to your calcs)

226 ahead now 166

395 behind now 276

37% goes to 38%

With your required preflop assumptions, 5x assumptions, and 33. I added AK,AQ,AJ,AT and this also assumes 100% of said hands will actually call down.

This was easy and you made it difficult for no reason other than you wanted to be self-righteous and condensending. Against the deck was a fair assumption and you aided in proving yourself wrong. Check the f*ing river unless you can come up with another 17%.

And another note, I'm going to go by some batteries for my TI-89 because using the Microsoft calculator is a pain in the butt.

[Loser]

I'll save you a fraction of you 17% search. I forgot to add AhKh-AhTh to your total (another 4 more combos).

ahead 166
behind 272

Still 38%

Now you only have to find another 138 combos to cut out of the behind total to get that magical 55%!

166 ahead
272 behind

[Nick Royale]

Yeah, I forgot to also discount the big aces which obviously changes things alot. I also thought him folding some hands from UTG preflop would have a greater impact, but it will probably only change things a few percentages. Still, your reasoning up until this point has not been accurate and that it was even close was only coincidence. This calc is spot on though and I agree checking is better.

[Krenobelo]

Oop i would bet the river, but in this case i would play it cb

[HoneyBadger]

I'm surprised at the discussion, I thought this was an easy check-behind when I first read the hand. My thinking was "ok, what will he call with? Maybe ace-little, and even that's doubtful. He might just not feel like it this hand. Everything else beats me. I'm glad he didn't bet so I'd have to make a crying call. check."

Then again I often marvel at their stupidity if I'm called down by queen high card.