2/4, 66, value bet this river?

_TKO_ · #1 11-12-2006, 09:45 PM

Villian is 79/14/0.70

PokerRoom 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 6 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

River: (5.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero ...

James. · #2 11-12-2006, 09:57 PM

i think there would be value from a bet against such an opponent. it is thin, though. i've actually been checking these spots a portion of the time when i once autofired most all the time.

Allday Everyday · #3 11-12-2006, 10:06 PM

I think this is an interesting situation PF. I think the isolation raise with 66 from early middle is okay/good. I think calling would be bad...

I think flop and turn are good.

I would bet that river. Checking wouldn't cost too much IMO. I think it's a close decision.

runnawaybus · #4 11-12-2006, 11:25 PM

Betting>Checking

Jiggymike · #5 11-12-2006, 11:41 PM

I think a bet is good on the river, but like others said I don't think it is a big advantage because a lot of hands he will call down with (Ax) will fold or have caught a pair and call. however someone this loose probalby has a wide calling range, so betting is alright. PF raise is interesting, normally I would limp it here but raise works here to get HU with a seemingly weak player.

_TKO_ · #6 11-13-2006, 04:26 AM

The PFR is at least somewhat dependent on the rest of the table. With two or more loosies who will call anyway, I'd rather just limp. In my particular spot, isolation was probable.

Haupt_234 · #7 11-13-2006, 01:03 PM

I usually don't try to isolate a horrible from MP1 w/ 66 but if your read on the rest of the table (mainly the players behind you) had you pretty confident about getting it HU then cheers.

And I would bet the river for value.

Haupt_234

Loser · #8 11-13-2006, 02:07 PM

I'm against everyone here and say it not only should be a river check, but it's an easy one at that. Only hands you could be looking at a value river bet against are pocket 2s, 4s, 3x, and Ax. Everything else loses. I hate to have to be so obvious but it is what it is.

Rough math

So evaluating those cards ~15% he has at least an ace and of those only Ax combos 10% of them will beat you (AA, A8, A9, A5, Axs hearts) so we'll give it a generous
13% assuming he's calling down all aces.

3s are the same so knock out the combos (33, 38, 39, 35, 3A [already calculated]) and we get 13%

Chance that he might have pocket 2s or 4s is right around .9% but since villian is tight enough to fold 11% of his starting hands we'll beny the doubt him a full 1%

That's it 13%+13%+1% a whoppin 27% chance you're making a value bet that would require adding 17% (1BB/5.75BB) to the pot. Even if my math is off by 85% it's still an easy check call.

The EV gap between checking and betting is close w/TT, but with 66 it's an absolute landslide check.

Great Preflop, Flop, and Turn, check-call river.

River EV hierarcy:
Check-Call>Check-Fold>Bet

Nick Royale · #9 11-13-2006, 02:22 PM

The biggest mistake you made is that you forgot to count how many combos that are ahead of us. Edit: not all hands that's not A-high or a 3 are ahead of us, obviously...

[ QUOTE ]
That's it 13%+13%+1% a whoppin 27% chance you're making a value bet that would require adding 17% (1BB/5.75BB) to the pot. Even if my math is off by 85% it's still an easy check call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Since we're in position (which I'm not sure you're aware of since you're suggesting check/calling) the pot size doesn't matter. Not that I at all understand the qouted sentences. We need to be ahead about 55% of the time when called to bet the river.

[ QUOTE ]
Great Preflop, Flop, and Turn, check-call river.

[/ QUOTE ]
Imo we shouldn't raise preflop. On the river we should valuebet.

Haupt_234 · #10 11-13-2006, 02:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So evaluating those cards ~15% he has at least an ace and of those only Ax combos 10% of them will beat you (AA, A8, A9, A5, Axs hearts) so we'll give it a generous
13% assuming he's calling down all aces.

3s are the same so knock out the combos (33, 38, 39, 35, 3A [already calculated]) and we get 13%

Chance that he might have pocket 2s or 4s is right around .9% but since villian is tight enough to fold 11% of his starting hands we'll beny the doubt him a full 1%

That's it 13%+13%+1% a whoppin 27% chance you're making a value bet that would require adding 17% (1BB/5.75BB) to the pot. Even if my math is off by 85% it's still an easy check call.

The EV gap between checking and betting is close w/TT, but with 66 it's an absolute landslide check.

Great Preflop, Flop, and Turn, check-call river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Solid math analysis.

One thing though. Just because 27% of his likely holdings (rough estimate) are beaten by hero's hand on the river doesn't mean the other 73% of his holdings have hero beat.

I.e. he could have a draw which he plans on folding on the river which could account for, again as an example, 55% of his holdings, in which case hero is behind to 18% of villain's holdings.

Haupt_234