Daliman's NFL wong teasers: Week 10

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
Quick question from a new member. I've had decent luck with 6 & 10 point teasers for the last few years. I'm new to this site and love the info passed around. This Weekend I love several teams with a 10-10.5 point teaser.. I'm not in Vegas and am looking for a site that allows you to bet more than just 3-4 teams on 10 point teasers. (betus.com is very limited). I love Indy -2, Balt +3, Jax -.5, NE -.5, Car +.5 & Den +.5... what type of odds could I get on a 6 teamer?

I would also do combos so as not to get knocked out with 1 loss.. thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

AFAIK, 10 point teasers are not profitable under any circumstances.

[Rick305]

Thanks to this thread, I just my 1st Teaser.

Hopefully college works with the Wong too [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

How did I do for a rookie? Thanks

2 10:42am
11-Nov-06 Teaser FB Mixed 2-6 Tm 6½ Pt 600.00 500.00
1. 11-Nov-06 Football/NCAA (Spread) South Carolina vs Florida (-6.5) for Game (-105) Pending
2. 11-Nov-06 Football/NCAA (Spread) Boise State (-6.5) vs San Jose State for Game (-105) Pending

[JasonK]

Wong's are only applicable to the NFL. Something to do with distribution of scores being too wide in NCAAF I think.

[ojc02]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Either way, No more 3 teamers for me while +100 2's are available.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think all the games you are considering are equally likely to cover with the teased points, a 3-teamer at +180 gives more edge than a 2-teamer at +100, doesn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, with a 2 teamer paying +100, you need your average win% to be > 70.71%, but with a 3 teamer paying +180 you need to average > 70.95%


(Technically it's not an average, you actually need: SQRT(Win%1 * Win%2) > 70.71% for the 2 teamer and Cube-root(Win%1 * Win%2 * Win%3) > 70.95% for the 3 teamer, but meh, it's pretty damn close to a standard average)


Also, you get lower variance by doing a 2-teamer round robin.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you have found the break even point for each...but the 2 and 3 teamers have the same EV if the teams cover 71.5% of the time. If they cover more often the 3 teamer is more profitable. SSB had them covering around 76% of the time IIRC - the 3 teamer should be much better:

EV 2-teamer: win 0.76^2 = 0.5776; lose 1 - 0.5776 = 0.4224; EV = 0.5776 - 0.4224 = 0.1552

EV 3-teamer: win 0.76^3 = 0.4389; lose 1 - 0.4389 = 0.561; EV = 0.4389 * 1.8 - 0.561 = 0.229

[/ QUOTE ]

Doh! I suck. So yeah, it depends what your estimate is of the win chance as to which is more profitable.

[chaz64]

[ QUOTE ]
Variance is also higher on 3 teamers IIRC. A good bit higher.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you risk the same amount, yes. But you could risk less to get the same win amount.

If you bet $50 each on three 2 teamers, you can win $150 if they all hit (at even money). If two hit you lose only $50; you would need two or three to miss to lose the whole $150 you risked.

But with a 3 teamer you don't have to risk $150, you could instead risk say $85 to win $153 (at +180). The amount you win is the same; when one or more of the games lose you are out $85, rather than the $50 (or occasional $150) loss with the 2 teamers. It depends how you want to manage risk in exchange for a higher edge.

[kdog]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quick question from a new member. I've had decent luck with 6 & 10 point teasers for the last few years. I'm new to this site and love the info passed around. This Weekend I love several teams with a 10-10.5 point teaser.. I'm not in Vegas and am looking for a site that allows you to bet more than just 3-4 teams on 10 point teasers. (betus.com is very limited). I love Indy -2, Balt +3, Jax -.5, NE -.5, Car +.5 & Den +.5... what type of odds could I get on a 6 teamer?

I would also do combos so as not to get knocked out with 1 loss.. thoughts?


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



AFAIK, 10 point teasers are not profitable under any circumstances

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know why Daliman would bother to reply without answering your question but you can play teasers like this at 5Dimes.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quick question from a new member. I've had decent luck with 6 & 10 point teasers for the last few years. I'm new to this site and love the info passed around. This Weekend I love several teams with a 10-10.5 point teaser.. I'm not in Vegas and am looking for a site that allows you to bet more than just 3-4 teams on 10 point teasers. (betus.com is very limited). I love Indy -2, Balt +3, Jax -.5, NE -.5, Car +.5 & Den +.5... what type of odds could I get on a 6 teamer?

I would also do combos so as not to get knocked out with 1 loss.. thoughts?


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



AFAIK, 10 point teasers are not profitable under any circumstances

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know why Daliman would bother to reply without answering your question but you can play teasers like this at 5Dimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

#1 Because I don't know.
#2 Because I'm not the kinda guy that tells people where to place bad bets.

[kdog]

[ QUOTE ]


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quick question from a new member. I've had decent luck with 6 & 10 point teasers for the last few years. I'm new to this site and love the info passed around. This Weekend I love several teams with a 10-10.5 point teaser.. I'm not in Vegas and am looking for a site that allows you to bet more than just 3-4 teams on 10 point teasers. (betus.com is very limited). I love Indy -2, Balt +3, Jax -.5, NE -.5, Car +.5 & Den +.5... what type of odds could I get on a 6 teamer?

I would also do combos so as not to get knocked out with 1 loss.. thoughts?


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



AFAIK, 10 point teasers are not profitable under any circumstances


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



I don't know why Daliman would bother to reply without answering your question but you can play teasers like this at 5Dimes.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



#1 Because I don't know.
#2 Because I'm not the kinda guy that tells people where to place bad bets

[/ QUOTE ]

#1 Then why would you reply at all?
#2 He didn't ask about the EV.

[Daliman]

Week 10:
Teased games: 5-1
2 team teases 5-1
+1400

YTD:
Teased Games: 35-4 (89.74%)
2 Team Teases: 44-12 (78.57%)
3 Team teases: 1-0 (100%)
4 Team Teases: 6-1 (85.71%)
+7718

[Ethan G]

Hi Daliman,

Would you mind summarizing the plays you made? It gets confusing to surf through the whole thread to figure out how your record gets figured.

Why was Atlanta not one of your wongs? Unfortunately it screwed several of my teasers while chillin at the Bellagio yesterday. Well, at least I did get 12 free Coronas.

Thanks for your posts,
Ethan